The very much publicized last minute heroics of Matthew Stafford has been shown a number of times and was even NFL Replay’s game of the night last night. But what exactly happened on that last drive that left Kris Durham wide open and Calvin Johnson what may have looked like an easy catch to take him down to the one yard line?
Rather than some short writeups across the league this week, I decided to take a more in-depth look at a situation that, as a fan of good football, bugs me. The St. Louis Rams have, under head coach Jeff Fisher and GM Les Snead, taken a team that was possibly the absolute worst in the league from 2007-2011– totaling 15 wins over those five seasons, including a seven-win season in 2010– and turned them into a team that is, at least, competitive in many games, if not quite ready to take a leap beyond the six- and seven-win dregs.
These improvements might lead one to think that the current nucleus of the team is primed to take a big leap forward soon. I think this is a mirage, and the team’s long-term prospects will be severely hampered if they stick with that core. Read on as I describe the problems.
1/6 last week following 4/11 in week 4. Let’s see how poorly I can do this week, where I will introduce teaser picks. I think there is a lot of value in adding a few points to either side of a bet even if you have to hit on more picks at worse odds. I’m also not feeling the standard lines this week (due to poor performance and plain toughness) so apologies for fewer straight up line picks.
Rob at advanced-analysis basketball blog Points Per Possession and I recorded a podcast previewing the Houston Rockets’ upcoming season. Being a longtime Rockets fan, as well as a particular fan of Daryl Morey’s work as GM, I had a lot to say about the team’s prospects in 2013-14, especially now that all the pieces seem to be in place for Morey’s grand plan to build a title contender.
We recorded this in August, so it’s possible not all of the information on it is totally up-to-date. On the other hand, it’s possible I will look even more prescient about the Rockets’ prospects. There’s only one way to find out: Listen here!
I went into the tape for Jordan Cameron not looking for anything in particular. He is a player who has exploded onto the scene after having a huge preseason and carrying that momentum into the season. Cameron’s bulk production is way, way up from last year. He caught 20 passes for 226 yards and 1 TD then. This year, he has already caught 45 balls for 515 yards and 6 TDs.
Got this out the door a little later than I’d hoped, as I’ve had a busy week so far. Moving right along with it…
With the Saints on a bye, I chose to focus my viewing attention on the Texans this week, for many reasons. Primarily, of course, I was interested to see game one of The Case Keenum Experiment and how that change affected the team. A brief writeup on the Texans’ last 24 hours, after the jump…
Apologies for the late post, I won’t be able to make a detailed writeup since the games are on soon, so I’ll include most of my thoughts later this week in the recap. Here are my picks for week 5:
For those of you not familiar with the Las Vegas Hilton SuperContest, it’s a… contest (note to self: buy a thesaurus) where entrants plunk down $5,000 at the beginning of the NFL season to join a pool to pick games against the spread. Each week, participants pick five games against point spreads published on Wednesday. Weekly winners get a small percentage of the prize pool; at the end of the season, the leaders get a substantially bigger portion.
Just to clear things up, I did not enter the LVH SuperContest. I don’t have $5,000 to tie up for four months in a gambling venture where I do not have any significant statistical edge and in fact am far likelier to be a fish among the professional sports bettors who make a up a decent size of the entry pool. However, an old college friend of mine started running an equivalent pool with a $100 buyin, a level of risk and competition I was much more comfortable with. So I entered, and after two finishes just out of the money (each year I finished one spot behind the people who tied for the last paid spot), I decided that this year, I was going to write up my picks each week and my thought process behind them so I could double-check my logic and analyze my picks afterward to see where and why I went right or wrong. And seven weeks into the season, I finally got around to doing that.
Here are my week seven picks with my reasoning for each:
Recommended lines: 1/5
Solid Leans: 3/6
Pretty terrible week to say the least, but lets go further and break it down.
A talking point of many analysts right now is how the Packers will rebound with the Randall Cobb injury. A major point that many analysts are keying on is the running game that the Packers may have finally found. They’ve had a 100 yard rusher in 3 of their last 4 games, all 3 games are a different running back accumulating the 100 yards. So I decided to take a look at Eddie Lacy.
While we are all big NFL fans here, let’s be honest: One of the most fun things about following the NFL is attempting to overcome its unpredictability and predict the future. Whether you’re trying to make a buck, will your team to victory, or simply looking for bragging rights, NFL betting is extremely exciting. I’ve always enjoyed analyzing potential NFL outcomes, and I’d like to put my recommendations out there. I’ll do my best to touch upon all factors I find important, but if you feel I’ve left something out, feel free to leave a comment. So without further ado, I present to all of you the first of what will be a weekly column for this blog.
One of the interesting questions of the early part of this season is “What is the problem with Cam Newton?” Cam is in his third season and is undoubtedly struggling. His bulk numbers are not good so far this season:
All of those numbers are worse than his past two seasons. The two eye-popping stats are Cam’s ANY/A and sack%. ANY/A is a statistic that includes a QB’s pass yards, sack yards, touchdowns, and interceptions, as well as the number of pass attempts and number of times sacked. It’s a stat meant to measure overall performance by a QB, and it’s a good starting point for looking at how a quarterback is performing. Cam’s ANY/A is subpar and a significant decline from his first two seasons.
Onto the concerns: Continue reading
I’m sick this week, so the usual pomp and frills will have to be discarded in favor of a more straightforward ranking.
Zone Reads 