Coaching Hot Seats

Is it too early in the season to talk about firing coaches? Well, it’s already on my mind, and there are some coaches who clearly are already feeling the heat, so let’s jump right in.

Is the Drew Brees era over?

I started writing this after the Saints fell to 0-2 and it was revealed that Drew Brees injured his shoulder against Tampa Bay. With Brees missing the first game in his career due to injury in week 3 (the Saints are now 0-3), and with the team trading Akiem Hicks today for a blocking tight end, it seems clear that the season is a lost cause and the team is looking to clear cap space– yes, even their minor restructuring of Brees’ contract to create space this year was because they pretty much had to. (That said, if they let Hicks leave as a free agent, New Orleans might get a compensatory pick for him– but they’ve never valued compensatory picks, as we’ll cover below.)

What’s wrong?

I wrote some things about the Saints last year when they fell apart, and I don’t want to repeat them too much. Many of the problems (unreliable receivers, Tim Lelito, overall lack of defensive talent, Jairus Byrd’s contract) remain, and between the sheer lack of overall roster talent and the cap situation, it’s going to take time to fix those things.

I do want to mention that with the trade of Hicks, nobody from the team’s 2012 draft remains on the roster. The team fired the director of college scouting and cleaned out the department this offseason, and after the disastrous 2014 draft has left exactly one player from it on the active roster one year later, it’s understandable. But these kinds of draft misses– compounded by frequent trades up– have been part of the problem for years. For the handful of late-round gems the team found, they had many more late-round whiffs and early picks who disappointed or outright busted; Stanley Jean-Baptiste was simultaneously the apex of this trend and the straw that broke the camel’s back. The 2015 draft, with the new team headed presumably by Jeff Ireland (although his title is Assistant General Manager, not Director of College Scouting) is looking better, but the roster is threadbare and the cap is spent.

And with the roster threadbare and the cap spent, Drew Brees can only take them so far. If the Saints suck even with Brees, which is looking like the case, then the road to rebuilding could be long. 2016 is probably lost as well.

That leads into our next question:

Is Brees done?

I don’t think so. The murmurs about his deep ball and failing accuracy started last year (even though Football Outsiders disagreed), and increased in intensity after he put two deep balls to Brandin Cooks far too short in the Tampa Bay game. However, those both happened after Brees took the hit that injured his shoulder to the degree he missed the Carolina game. Before, I think he was fine. The problem is that his receivers just aren’t reliable– Marques Colston isn’t getting enough separation and is dropping too many passes, and no one else has the ability to reliably make difficult or contested catches. The team lost Jimmy Graham and Kenny Stills and tried to replace their production with undrafted free agents; it isn’t working because those guys aren’t as good.

Unfortunately, what can the team do in the meantime? They won’t have cap room to sign free agents. If they draft receivers highly, they may take a while to develop. Brees may be too old to benefit by then. He may not even be on the team anymore.

Brees’ contract expires after 2016 and they may just be better served playing it out. With the new figures from Wednesday’s adjustment (via Spotrac), Brees sits at a $23.8m cap hit for this year, and with an extra $10m in dead money on top of that if they trade or release him, they have to stick it out. (That’s right: Brees would leave $33.8 million dollars in dead money on the Saints’ 2015 cap.) His cap hit in 2016 soars to $30 million, but would only leave $10 million in dead money if they released him. Even considering those $20 million in savings, it may still be best to just let him play out the year and re-assess. No point in eating cap room to stink and throw a guy into the fire.  (If they really think Garrett Grayson is The Guy, another year on the bench can only help. As could drafting some more reliable receivers.)

What can be done?

It’s going to take a serious and strong drafting effort over the next two years. The cap should look better in 2017. The team would do well to mostly stay out of the free-agent market this year; they don’t have a ton of free agents (Hicks would have been the better ones), but by letting them walk, and not spending on more free agents, they might garner some compensatory picks. The Saints’ approach has not involved much of this strategy, with the team needing to rebuild to become competitive again, they should be looking to stock pile as many draft picks as possible. (The Baltimore Ravens use this strategy to great effect.)

The 2015 rookie class already has shown promising returns. Stephone Anthony still makes some rookie mistakes, but he’s been outstanding in several facets of the game. Delvin Breaux (GIF-able moments aside) and Damian Swann seem to be legit additions to the secondary. (Keenan Lewis is scheduled to come back this week; this may be the first chance for us to see the Saints’ cornerback crew at anything close to full strength.) Hau’oli Kikaha has been positive, as have some of the rookie defensive linemen, particularly Bobby Richardson. The defense is not good yet, but they have some solid young parts and a couple of guys who could be franchise cornerstones. Another draft this good on the defensive end, and the team could have the foundation they’re looking for in place.

On offense, the two biggest weak spots seem to be Tim Lelito and the receivers. If Lelito doesn’t improve, the team should try to find a guard at some point in the 2016 draft. As I’ve said many times, the team needs a true #1 receiver, someone who can make the difficult catches as well as the big plays, someone you turn to in critical situations, someone you can count on when you need a catch.

Finding a Drew Brees replacement is critical, of course. Garrett Grayson may or may not be it. But I don’t think the team should pin all its hopes on a third-round quarterback (but then again, I wasn’t that high on him to begin with).

I also want the team to lock up Terron Armstead. Yes, I think Andrus Peat can play left tackle, but I’d rather have both. They have few proven players who are young and talented enough that they could be considered foundational pieces; Armstead is one.

2016 Mock Draft

I rolled over to Fanspeak’s On the Clock Mock Draft (while they’re running a trial period where the “premium” feature, with custom boards and trades, is free). I haven’t done enough draft work for 2016 to have my own board, so I just used Fanspeak’s. (Which also means I don’t necessarily know who’s good, but the exercise was still fun nonetheless.)

I did not set the draft order. Fanspeak decided of their own accord that New Orleans deserved the #1 pick.

Here are my selections and reasoning:

http://fanspeak.com/ontheclock/sharedraft.php?d=yshmhs (NOTE: As of publishing this link was down. Picks are still written and explained below.)

YOUR PICKS

1: R1P1
JOEY BOSA
OHIO STATE
Immediate substantial upgrade to the pass-rush. Talent jumps off the screen, even in a draft full of pass rushers. Saints have been running a 4-3 a substantial amount of the time and Bosa would be perfect opposite Cam Jordan. (There’s a strong argument to take a QB here; Jared Goff is my favorite at this time. I did exploit Fanspeak’s rankings to target a different guy, as you’ll see below.)

2: R2P7
WR MICHAEL THOMAS
OHIO STATE
I then traded down with Jacksonville, acquiring the 2.07 and 4.07 for the 2.01. Thomas I don’t know much about yet, but he was Fanspeak’s highest rated receiver at the spot, and I liked what I did see of him against Virginia Tech. I’ve made it clear I think the team needs more receivers who can make difficult and contested catches, and Thomas fits the bill with his size and strength, and adds nice ability after the catch to boot.

3: R3P1
OLB DADI LHOMME NICOLAS
VIRGINIA TECH
Probably won’t be available here in reality, but again, another guy whose athleticism is evident from tape (and will likely measure out that way in the Combine as well). Jumps off the screen with a fantastic first step and very good bend, too. If they stay in the 4-3, they now have one of the best young trio of linebackers in the league in Hau’oli Kikaha, Stephone Anthony, and Nicolas– add the outside ‘backers to Bosa and Jordan, and you have four young, fearsome pass rushers. This could be a return to the glory days of the Dome Patrol. (I’m not sure if Jordan or Bosa is Wayne Martin.)

4: R4P1
WR STERLING SHEPARD
OKLAHOMA
Another guy at the top of the board who I liked when I saw. Adds more speed and quickness to the mix. I like Shepard and Thomas to make tougher catches and also draw coverage away from Cooks to let him maximize his speed.

5: R4P7
ROBERTO AGUAYO
FLORIDA STATE
He was near the top of Fanspeak’s board, and I’ve really had enough of the kicking problems that continually plague this team.

6: R5P1
QB JACOBY BRISSETT
NC STATE
Likely won’t be here in real life, but he shows some really high-level deep accuracy and ability to read progressions on film. May need some work, but truthfully could be better than Garrett Grayson. The team really should do whatever it takes to find and develop their next starter.

7: R7P1
WR BRAXTON MILLER
OHIO STATE
Okay, fine, I don’t know what to do with him, I just took him because of the name and the idea of using him in a bunch of gadget stuff. In reality, they probably take a special-teams player or a developmental offensive lineman.

I like this draft (especially if Brissett pans out, obviously). It fills in two of the most obvious weak spots on the defensive front seven, and greatly upgrades the pass rush in the process. The team keeps searching for the QB for Year One A.B. (After Brees), and adds two receivers who should substantially strengthen the group for whoever that guy is.

2016 outlook

Even assuming a draft like this and Brees back to health, this is probably still a middling team. The young talent won’t be fully developed yet. They’ll bounce back a little bit, perhaps to .500. There’s even hope they could make the playoffs in 2016, if the rookies contribute right away, Andrus Peat takes over for Zach Strief (and becomes the dominant tackle he showed the potential to be), and everyone stays healthy.

Decisions will have to be made on Kenny Vaccaro and Jairus Byrd in the 2017 offseason. (My guess will be that Vaccaro regains form and earns a second deal, but Byrd, whether because of injuries or age or both, will be let go.) The team will have to fill in for those guys, as well as anyone else dropping off due to injury or age. With this 2016 mock and presuming things go roughly as I expected, the biggest needs in 2017 will probably be at safety, interior offensive lineman (and perhaps defensive, too), and running back.

And, of course, whether or not the single most important question of the franchise’s future has been answered: Who will be the next quarterback after Drew Brees?

Podcast with Inside the Pylon: Saints Talk

Once again doing a little crossover work with our friends at Inside the Pylon, I appeared on their Thursday podcast to talk about the Saints’ struggles. You can listen here.

(I apologize in advance for the excess of “Ummmmm”s. Even being prepared doesn’t help me in the morning.)

I didn’t get to cover everything I think about the Saints’ prospects for this season and beyond, so I’m hoping to do so in a future column.

Midseason Review: NFC South

I’ll try to get a series of midseason reviews about various divisions done this week. I may not get to all of them, so I’ll try to start with the ones that interest me the most.

NFC SOUTH

New Orleans Saints
Current record: 4-4

The Saints lead the division, although they’d surely like to have a better record at this point. Losing three close games on the road in rough fashion has held them back early on. That said, they did look shakier in the early season than they have since the bye, barely beating Tampa Bay and struggling to put away Minnesota.

Two solid wins against Green Bay and at Carolina indicate that the team is a lot better than the one that struggled for six weeks. The question is: Were the better performances the result of favorable matchups, or of sustainable improvements on both sides of the ball? It’s a question with evidence to support each argument: Green Bay only stopped scoring when Aaron Rodgers was hurt, and the Saints match up particularly well with a Carolina team with one serious receiving option and a porous offensive line. On the other hand, getting Mark Ingram and Kenny Stills back to full health opened up the offense, and Rob Ryan may have used the bye week to re-engineer a defense that was conceived around the free-range ability of Jairus Byrd. For those reasons, the Saints may be the most intriguing story of the second half of the season, as they try to prove they are a real Super Bowl contender.

Carolina Panthers
Current record: 3-5-1

Losing Greg Hardy has been more difficult on the defense than I think anyone anticipated. Kelvin Benjamin has played incredibly well, all things considered, but the same problems that were perceived in this team before the season continue to surface: An undermanned offensive line and receiver crew, running backs who can’t stay healthy, and a lack of talent in the back four on defense. This roster needs to be rebuilt, and it needs to be done before Cam Newton develops too many bad habits from working with subpar talent.

Atlanta Falcons
Current record: 2-6

All that draft-day trading up and top-heavy team-building has come to roost the last two seasons for the Falcons, as injuries and lack of cap room have left them with multiple subpar units. After 2012, it would have been crazy to suggest anyone in the Falcons’ braintrust might be in jeopardy, yet less than two years later, here we are.

The team needs to build a healthy offensive line and a pass rush before it can consider itself a playoff contender again. I know this is an unreasonably short writeup, but there’s not much to say: The good (Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Desmond Trufant, eventually Jake Matthews) and bad (just about everything else) with this team are pretty obvious.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Current record: 1-7

I feel like “solid” and “high floor”, when used to describe draft prospects, often means “low ceiling.” I can’t tell you how many guys I’ve heard described that way have just been complete busts (Aaron Curry and Jason Smith are two of the more recent ones; Luke Joeckel is heading there). All this is a metaphor for Lovie Smith’s “veteran coaching presence.” His supposed “high floor” isn’t manifesting itself; the roster has a decided lack of talent and he’s doing nothing to get any kind of special performance out of it. Lovie Smith was supposed to be a throwback to the Dungy era, but right now, it’s looking more like the Hugh Culverhouse years.

Mike Glennon is probably not the answer, but he hasn’t been outright terrible, either. That said, no matter how the team goes about it, they need a real passing game to compete in the modern NFL. Smith doesn’t have much of a track record of delivering those.

Post-script: After I initially wrote this, Smith announced Josh McCown would return to being the starter. He also said Mike Glennon was still “the future of this team.” Those things appear to me to be mutually exclusive, but what do I know, I’m not an NFL head coach (of a 1-7 team).

From the Archives

A couple of pieces we wrote about incoming rookies that are newly relevant with recent player developments. These both happen to be in the AFC South:

With Zach Mettenberger taking over the starting job in Tennessee, you may want to read vix’s breakdown of his game. In general, Zone Reads had Mettenberger ranked much more highly than his sixth-round draft position.

Telvin Smith was the AFC defensive player of the week. Read some evaluation of Jacksonville’s fifth-round pick. Smith was the #34 ranked prospect overall on our final 2014 draft board.

Week 7 SuperContest Pick Review

Well, that could have gone better.

ATLANTA (+7 at Baltimore)
Result: Baltimore 29, Atlanta 7

What went right: Nothing.
What went wrong: Everything. I learned a valuable lesson in not taking a team I think is significantly worse without an enormous line. “If all goes well, they could be in position to make a backdoor cover” is a reason to stay away from a bet, not to make it.

BUFFALO (-4.5 vs. Minnesota)
Result: Buffalo 17, Minnesota 16

What went right: Buffalo’s defense held Minnesota to 16 points, and Sammy Watkins was every bit as incredible as I hoped, finishing with nine catches for 122 yards and two TDs, including the game winner.
What went wrong: Well, the Bills only scored three other points. They lost the turnover battle 4-2 (including losing all three of their fumbles); they probably could have covered if the turnover margin was even. That said, perhaps I shouldn’t have so much faith in the Buffalo Bills to do things like avoid turnovers.

CAROLINA (+7 at Green Bay)
Result: Green Bay 38, Carolina 17

What went right: See the Atlanta pick.
What went wrong: I should have known this was not a safe bet by virtue of the fact that the line was the same as Carolina’s against Cincinnati. I should have remembered that Green Bay is quite a bit better than Cincinnati, and that stopping an A.J. Green-less offense isn’t the same thing as stopping Aaron Rodgers. I also should have made some adjustments for fatigue, given that the Panthers played five full quarters the week before and were back on the road. I did a poor job estimating the skill difference between teams on these first three bets.

HOUSTON (+3.5 at Pittsburgh)
Result: Pittsburgh 30, Houston 23

What went right: Everything up until 3:06 left in the first half, during which Houston outscored Pittsburgh 13-0 and was winning by taking advantage of the very things I thought they would: Namely, using the running game to move the ball and control the clock, and allowing J.J. Watt to disrupt Pittsburgh’s offense.
What went wrong: The final three minutes of the half were a complete disaster the kind of which is rarely seen at the NFL level. Suddenly down 24-13, the Texans had to start relying on Ryan Fitzpatrick and the passing game. Ryan Fitzpatrick is not a good QB. It did not go well. I’m not sure where I should just chalk this up to a bizarre fluke, or whether I should have some built-in expectation that the Texans will blow games in egregious fashion (I certainly had it built in to my season bet on their win total).

INDIANAPOLIS (-3 vs. Cincinnati)
Result: Indianapolis 27, Cincinnati 0

What went right: Literally everything that possibly could have. Don’t bet against Andrew Luck– in the end, top-flight quarterback play cures a lot of ills and a lot of other roster holes.
What went wrong: Nothing, as far as my bet goes. Even Giovani Bernard, who I thought would be key if the Bengals were going to score an upset, was barely a factor, with only 9 carries for 17 yards.

You know the worst part? I named three picks I considered but passed up (Dallas, Denver, New Orleans), and all three ultimately won. In the future, I may scale my picks a little more toward teams I actually feel are genuinely better than the lines, rather than basing the entirety of my decision on a half-point swing. No more “Well, the line moved from 7 to 6.5 so I have to take the underdog” if I still don’t think the underdog is a reasonable favorite to cover.

Week Results: 1-4
Season Results: 19-16

Week 7 SuperContest Picks

Let’s jump right in.

ATLANTA (+7 at Baltimore)

On Pinnacle, the line has moved down to 6.5. If a line crosses the 3 or 7, or even just moves on or off it, I jump on it. I don’t love Atlanta, but they have the offensive firepower to score a garbage TD to close the line. I don’t really see a blowout happening here, even though Atlanta’s offensive line might get eaten alive.

BUFFALO (-4.5 vs. Minnesota)

This has moved a half-point to -5. More to the point, I’ve learned my lesson from last week’s disastrous Minnesota pick: Don’t take a rookie QB behind a shaky offensive line against a great defensive line. Buffalo is at home, and I’m not sure the Vikings have anyone who can cover Sammy Watkins.

CAROLINA (+7 at Green Bay)

This line has also moved to 6.5. I don’t much care for Carolina’s chance to slow down Green Bay, but even without Greg Hardy, they should have an advantage in the trenches there. More to the point, Cam Newton is healthy enough to run the read option again, and Green Bay’s inability to stop the read option is extremely well documented by now.

HOUSTON (+3.5 at Pittsburgh)

This has moved to 3 on Pinnacle, so you know it was another priority for me. I also like the matchup given that Pittsburgh’s defense is no longer the fearsome unit its reputation carries. I’m pretty sure Arian Foster has a non-zero chance to crack 200 yards. The Rooney’s incredible patience with coaches and GMs is going to bite them in the ass over the next few years, as Mike Tomlin less and less seems like a coach who adds anything to a team’s win probability, and Kevin Colbert keeps spending money on veterans who don’t deserve it.

INDIANAPOLIS (-3 vs. Cincinnati)

I passed a couple of other lines that moved (Dallas, Denver, New Orleans) because I just really think that, all else being equal, Andrew Luck is going to dominate this game. I see something similar to the Colts’ win over Baltimore happening. Without A.J. Green, it’s tough to see Andy Dalton making enough happen to keep up, and as great as the Bengals’ defense can be, they’ve also given up 80 points in their last two games. I think it’s arguable that Indianapolis has a better offense than either New England or Carolina. (Which is not to say I expect 40+ points, just that I think Indianapolis covers, unless the Bengals’ game plan is almost entirely Giovani Bernard-centered and they’re able to dominate the time of possession.)

Week 6 SuperContest Picks Review

Since I have nothing on the game tonight, I figured I’d write this now. I went 3-2 to maintain my 60% winning percentage. Let’s see if I can figure out what I got wrong. If you want to write this all off as arbitrary and variance, feel free to skip the rest.

BUFFALO (+3 vs. New England)
Result: New England 37, Buffalo 22

What went right: My analysis of the trenches matchup when New England had the ball had some merit, as the Bills’ defensive line was to hold the Patriots to 1.9 yards rushing (even if you throw out Tom Brady’s carries, the running backs still had 23 carries for only 47 yards).

What went wrong: Even with the advantage in that matchup, and even though the Bills were able to get to Brady (six hits and two sacks), he still was dynamite through the air, with 361 yards and 4 TDs. All three of the Patriots’ top targets had at least 90 yards receiving; the Bills secondary has some problems.

Also, I completely neglected the matchup of the Bills’ offense vs. the Patriots’ defense. The Bills’ o-line was insufficient to stop the pass rush, Sammy Watkins found himself on Revis Island all day, and that was that.

CAROLINA (+7 vs. Cincinnati)
Result: Carolina 37, Cincinnati 37

What went right: Cam Newton is really good and exploited the Bengals’ weakness at defending the zone read. Cincinnati led by 7 at halftime but never more than that, so this bet was never in any significant danger. Since the extra half-point I got from the closing line was the major reason I chose this bet, I don’t have much in the way of thorough analysis.

What went wrong: Carolina gave up 37 points, which would have been terrible for me if Cam wasn’t the kind of talent who could put a team on his back.

MIAMI (+3.5 vs. Green Bay)
Result: Green Bay 27, Miami 24

What went right: Basically everything, including getting the extra half-point as the game’s final score was exactly the margin where the line settled. I was right that Miami had the advantage in the trenches; I forgot to mention that this was true on the other side of the ball as well, helped by the Dolphins’ ability to run the zone read (and the Packers’ continued inability since the 2013 divisional playoff against San Francisco to stop it).

What went wrong: Joe Philbin continued to build on the case he’s made for himself in the last 12 months as the worst coach in the league with his cowardly “Don’t run plays that have a chance to get first downs, so we can give the ball back to Aaron Rodgers and let him win the game” strategy on the Dolphins’ final drive. At least I didn’t bet the Dolphins to win outright.

MINNESOTA (+2 vs. Detroit)
Result: Detroit 17, Minnesota 3

What went right: The Lions were only winning 10-0 until the fourth quarter, so getting a break or two could have given the Vikings a legit chance to win.

What went wrong: Everything except that absurdly optimistic previous sentence. Even a rookie quarterback as talented as I think Teddy Bridgewater is is going to struggle in his second start ever against possibly the league’s best defense, especially with his offensive line playing poorly. That was the overwhelming factor in this game– Bridgewater was hounded all day, but only one of his interceptions was really a bad decision. I just plain didn’t think this one through.

PHILADELPHIA (-2.5 vs. New York Giants)
Result: Philadelphia 27, New York Giants 0

What went right: “I don’t think the Giants are objectively better than the Eagles” – check. “I think the Giants are mistake-prone and have a crummy defense” – check. “I think Andre Williams is overrated and will prove a liability in the passing game” – check. (The Giants had to use Peyton Hillis when they wanted to pass, which surely helped tip off the Eagles.) When it comes down to it, I think these teams are still closer to their 2013 level than the spread indicated. I also think that while Tom Coughlin is a solid coach, he’s just not Chip Kelly.

That said, I’d be lying if I said I expected the game to be this thorough a domination.

What went wrong: The half-point was not important. Also, poor Victor Cruz. Hopefully Odell Beckham Jr. will step up and validate our faith in him.

SuperContest Week 6 picks

I haven’t been able to write on football lately for personal reasons, which has been a disappointment, but occasionally real life intervenes with our non-paying hobbies. Our other writers have been doing early work on the 2015 prospects, so look for some articles on them soon.

In the meantime, now that I have time, I’m going to try to keep up content here by writing some weekly features. One of those will be about my weekly picks. I’m not in the actual Las Vegas Hilton Supercontest, but rather an old college friend of mine has a similar pool going where the rules are the same: The lines are released late on Tuesday or on Wednesday, and each week we have to pick exactly five games against the spread. No exceptions. Payouts are made to weekly winners and to the overall leaders at the end of the season.

Our picks are locked in Saturday at noon, so sometime after that I’ll try to have a column up with my picks and details on my reasoning. I do this both for your entertainment and also to figure out if I can learn anything about NFL betting, which is a very difficult subject to master.

So far this year I’m sitting at 15-10. My five picks this week are below.

BUFFALO (+3 vs. New England)

E.J. Manuel was so badly inaccurate that Kyle Orton is a significant improvement, and I have minimal optimism for Kyle Orton’s performance abilities. I still think he’s accurate enough to get Sammy Watkins the ball on a regular basis, as he showed last week against Detroit (when Watkins collected 7 receptions on 12 targets for 87 yards).

New England isn’t as bad as they looked against the Chiefs or as good as they looked against the Bengals. I think Buffalo’s defensive line is going to win the battle at the line of scrimmage, though, and that’s going to give the Patriots trouble. The obvious mismatch is Marcell Dareus and Kyle Williams against rookie center Bryan Stork and current pair of guards Ryan Wendell and Dan Connolly, but the Patriot tackles have struggled this year, too, and Mario Williams in particular is a difficult matchup.

Plus, home underdogs have historically out-performed the spread, so when in doubt (which is often) I lean toward trends like that.

CAROLINA (+7 at Cincinnati)

A.J. Green’s absence will hurt the Bengals passing game, although they can probably still run Giovani Bernard all day. I don’t particularly care for the Panthers’ matchup here, but at most books the line has moved to 6.5. Since 3 and 7 are the key points, I take a half-point when the “true” line is sitting on one of those numbers to be a very significant advantage.

MIAMI (+3.5 vs. Green Bay)

See previous writeups on “home dogs” and “half-point advantages,” respectively. Miami has a pretty good pass defense (and an underrated defensive line) and the line has moved to 3 since ours were published.

MINNESOTA (+2 vs. Detroit)

Another home underdog. Calvin Johnson may not play, which will hurt the Lions, although not as much as the casual observer might believe. I’m a big Teddy Bridgewater believer, though, as I’ve made clear over the last year, and I think he stands as good a chance as anyone of outperforming Vegas’ expectations of him. I do worry about Minnesota’s offensive line vs. Detroit’s defensive line.

PHILADELPHIA (-2.5 vs. New York Giants)

The Eagles have been shockingly ineffective this year everywhere except special teams. I’m not crazy about this pick. On the other hand, I think the Giants are mistake-prone and have a crummy defense, and I think Andre Williams is overrated and will prove a liability in the passing game. I don’t think the Giants are objectively better than the Eagles, and that half-point will be important.

As you can see, I’m not terribly confident in any of those picks. That’s the thing about NFL betting, though: The lines are so good it’s hard to ever find significant advantages. So much of the time, I’ll just take the systemic advantage built in to having stale lines. Otherwise, I’ll try to find matchups or other reasons that I think indicate a team is over- or under-valued. I’m not a professional, so I don’t have any statistical models or data I’m not revealing to the public. I’m just doing this to see if I have any idea what I’m talking about; even then, it’s so easy for luck to change a game so significantly one way or the other that it’s hard to say.

2015 Draft Peek: Owamagbe Odighizuwa and Markus Golden

The 2015 NFL draft is right around the bend– well, in geological time, anyway. In any case, it’s never too early to take a look at some senior prospects. Our players today are both highly athletic defensive ends. Markus Golden was on my watch list before the season. He was the ‘other’ end on that incredible Missouri defensive line rotation which featured Michael Sam and Kony Ealy. Owamagbe Odighizuwa – say with me, OH-DIG-E-ZOO-WAH – leaped off my screen while I was leisurely watching UCLA open the season on the road against Virginia. I’ll start with him.

Thanks to Draft Breakdown for the videos, as always; none of this would be possible without their work.

Owamagbe Odighizuwa

Edge Rusher, UCLA

Owamagbe Odighizuwa (“Owa” from now on) missed all of the 2013 season with a hip injury that required surgery. He’s listed at 6’3″ and 270 lbs., and as The Daily Bruin put it in a profile last year, “His hands are the size of baseball mitts and his arms are bigger than most people’s legs.” His explosiveness off of the snap is extraordinary, as I’ll show soon. I watched UCLA’s opening game on the road at Virginia with the purpose of checking out quarterback Brett Hundley; but it was Owa who captured my attention. He plays again today versus Texas.

Look at his first few steps on this play. Watch it frame by frame from 1:16 to 1:18, if you can. That is an elite burst. What he fails to do there is rip or swim through the tackle and pressure or sack the quarterback.  The opportunity is there, but the hand work is not. He chooses to dip around the edge and the left tackle does a great job taking Owa out of the play in spite of getting beat at the snap. The next play is textbook run defense. Owa immediately extends both of his arms right into the tackle’s chest, pushes him 3-yards in the backfield, and makes the tackle for a loss.

The play of the game happens soon thereafter. On this play our man uses those long arms on a pass rush to perfection. Once again he displays an elite burst off of the snap, and this time due to his hand work he’s able to attack the outside shoulder of the offensive tackle. This allows Owa to free up his right arm; and he slaps the quarterback on the wrist right before the release. Interception. If you keep the tape rolling, the next play shows off his bull rush.

While spin moves usually result in making the pass rusher look ridiculous unless he happens to be named Dwight Freeney, Owa uses one beautifully here. His explosiveness is simply too much for Virginia to handle throughout the game. Here he uses a speed rush, and I want you to watch his left arm. That’s why he’s able to get around the edge. On this play we get to see him playing over a guard. Well, that was easy. If you keep the tape rolling he makes several more plays. You get the idea. The schedule for UCLA will get much tougher as the season rolls on. Keep an eye on him. Next up: Texas.

Markus Golden

Edge Rusher, Missouri

As I mentioned in the introduction, Markus Golden made quite a splash for Missouri last year. He finished the season with 13 tackles for loss, 6.5 sacks, and picked off a pass for a 70-yard touchdown. At 6’3″ and 260 lbs., he has good, albeit not incredible size, and can explode off of the snap at times. He’s another fifth-year senior with some experience at linebacker.

Golden is off to a hot start this year. We’re going to take a look at his game against Toledo. While Toledo is not the program that Missouri is, they have won at least 8 games in each of the last three seasons. In other words, this isn’t simply a team expected to roll over early in the season to the big, bad SEC opponent.

Golden relies almost exclusively on his speed. While impressive, he does not show any of the technical skill that Odighizuwa does. He gets blown off the line in the run game a number of times against Toledo. The tackle not only seals him off on this play, but drives him down the field as well. There’s a particularly ugly play on the goal line where Golden crashes inside only to have his back turned to the runner, who walks in for an easy touchdown. You need to be able to hold the point of attack in order to see the field on a regular basis in the NFL.

Nevertheless, there’s a reason why I decided to bring him up. His first step can be awesome. Here’s an example. Golden is two yards into the backfield by the time the ball reaches the quarterback. The play is completely doomed, an easy tackle for loss. On this play, it’s almost unbelievable that he is not offside. Even among top-tier pass-rushing prospects this kind of first step speed is rare. I mean, how many players can do this? How many tackles are thinking “no problem”? Not many. This next play is caused due to the quarterback inexplicably rolling out of a clean pocket, but I want to show it due to Golden’s closing speed.

If you watch the rest of that game, you’ll see him flash more here and there. He’ll also hesitate in spots where a play could’ve been made. Between these two players, Odighizuwa has better size, technique, and a higher football IQ. Golden possesses a more impressive first step, but that’s it. There’s a lot of football left to be played. Keep an eye out for both of these players as the season progresses.

The Top 10: Cornerbacks

NFL Network’s top 100 list has now been running for a few years, and it consistently draws grumbles around the country from more knowledgeable fans. While the rankings are voted by the players, the process of gathering the votes seems mediocre at best; each player is asked to list their top 15 players in the league. There is no weighing of votes by position, as each player’s vote seems to carry equal value. (For example, it would make more sense if the ranking of receivers was weighted more heavily by the cornerbacks who cover them.) Defensive linemen and offensive linemen would likely have the best idea of who the toughest players were at their opposing positions. And the coaches, who may have the most important opinions of all, are not involved at all!

Needle’s Defensive All-Pro Team, Awards and Picks

No reason to waste anytime for this so let’s get right into the Defensive side of the ball.

Needle’s Offensive All-Pro Teams

With the end of the regular season and time being limited to do a true player breakdown in recent weeks I did an overall view of the teams in the NFL to put together my all-pro team.

The Transition from Michael Vick to Nick Foles

In 196 attempts Nick Foles has solidified himself as the Eagles starter, likely for the long term. His bulk numbers are at a level that no second year quarterback has done in 29 years. Beyond the 19 touchdowns to no interceptions what is more impressive about Foles season is forcing Chip Kelly’s hand with Vick. Vick was having a fairly good year throwing and added a very good dimension to the rush offense. What Foles has lacked in rushing he has made up for in passing.

Can the Chiefs keep Mercury Morris worried?

For the second straight week I will not be looking at a specific player for analysis but rather a team. Last week we checked out the Seahawks “Cover 3Hawk.” The Chiefs are a much different breed in their ever changing defense. Chiefs excel in showing several different defensive formations. Chiefs, with the injury to Atkins, may have the best interior line player not named JJ Watt.

Seattle’s ‘Cover 3Hawk’

The NFL at time can be a very complex game that has many moving parts that seem to be constantly changing. We used to have John Madden giving us a very profound “BOOM” when evaluating offensive linemen and Jaws would take over a Monday Night Football broadcast by breaking down the intricacies of quarterback play. We got a taste of the zone read last year and it lead to a lot of conversation on how to stop it. The NFL is always changing and evolving.

Pete Carroll’s defensive philosophy does not have this same evolving belief. The Seahawks playoff run last year opened many eyes to cornerback Richard Sherman. Sherman has found a home with fellow CB Brandon Browner and safeties Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas. They play in what I’m referring to(with props to our EIC Nath) as the ‘Cover 3Hawk.’

Revisiting Predictions at Midseason (AFC)

(or: How I don’t have to think of a unique idea for a post or do any specific in-depth analysis but still manage to write something this week.)

Every team has played at least eight games. Some have played nine. That makes this the unofficial midpoint of the NFL season, and with it from columnists all across the land comes the time to look back, assign grades, compare predictions, and revise projections.

I don’t give out grades– they seem so arbitrary– but I will review, in brief, what I thought would happen with each team, what is happening, and what I think will happen.

Breaking Down the Lions Last Drive against the Cowboys

The very much publicized last minute heroics of Matthew Stafford has been shown a number of times and was even NFL Replay’s game of the night last night. But what exactly happened on that last drive that left Kris Durham wide open and Calvin Johnson what may have looked like an easy catch to take him down to the one yard line?

A look into Jordan Cameron

I went into the tape for Jordan Cameron not looking for anything in particular. He is a player who has exploded onto the scene after having a huge preseason and carrying that momentum into the season. Cameron’s bulk production is way, way up from last year. He caught 20 passes for 226 yards and 1 TD then. This year, he has already caught 45 balls for 515 yards and 6 TDs.

Green Bay’s Running Game with Eddie Lacy

A talking point of many analysts right now is how the Packers will rebound with the Randall Cobb injury. A major point that many analysts are keying on is the running game that the Packers may have finally found. They’ve had a 100 yard rusher in 3 of their last 4 games, all 3 games are a different running back accumulating the 100 yards. So I decided to take a look at Eddie Lacy.