Coaching Hot Seats

Is it too early in the season to talk about firing coaches? Well, it’s already on my mind, and there are some coaches who clearly are already feeling the heat, so let’s jump right in.

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Is the Drew Brees era over?

I started writing this after the Saints fell to 0-2 and it was revealed that Drew Brees injured his shoulder against Tampa Bay. With Brees missing the first game in his career due to injury in week 3 (the Saints are now 0-3), and with the team trading Akiem Hicks today for a blocking tight end, it seems clear that the season is a lost cause and the team is looking to clear cap space– yes, even their minor restructuring of Brees’ contract to create space this year was because they pretty much had to. (That said, if they let Hicks leave as a free agent, New Orleans might get a compensatory pick for him– but they’ve never valued compensatory picks, as we’ll cover below.)

What’s wrong?

I wrote some things about the Saints last year when they fell apart, and I don’t want to repeat them too much. Many of the problems (unreliable receivers, Tim Lelito, overall lack of defensive talent, Jairus Byrd’s contract) remain, and between the sheer lack of overall roster talent and the cap situation, it’s going to take time to fix those things.

I do want to mention that with the trade of Hicks, nobody from the team’s 2012 draft remains on the roster. The team fired the director of college scouting and cleaned out the department this offseason, and after the disastrous 2014 draft has left exactly one player from it on the active roster one year later, it’s understandable. But these kinds of draft misses– compounded by frequent trades up– have been part of the problem for years. For the handful of late-round gems the team found, they had many more late-round whiffs and early picks who disappointed or outright busted; Stanley Jean-Baptiste was simultaneously the apex of this trend and the straw that broke the camel’s back. The 2015 draft, with the new team headed presumably by Jeff Ireland (although his title is Assistant General Manager, not Director of College Scouting) is looking better, but the roster is threadbare and the cap is spent.

And with the roster threadbare and the cap spent, Drew Brees can only take them so far. If the Saints suck even with Brees, which is looking like the case, then the road to rebuilding could be long. 2016 is probably lost as well.

That leads into our next question:

Is Brees done?

I don’t think so. The murmurs about his deep ball and failing accuracy started last year (even though Football Outsiders disagreed), and increased in intensity after he put two deep balls to Brandin Cooks far too short in the Tampa Bay game. However, those both happened after Brees took the hit that injured his shoulder to the degree he missed the Carolina game. Before, I think he was fine. The problem is that his receivers just aren’t reliable– Marques Colston isn’t getting enough separation and is dropping too many passes, and no one else has the ability to reliably make difficult or contested catches. The team lost Jimmy Graham and Kenny Stills and tried to replace their production with undrafted free agents; it isn’t working because those guys aren’t as good.

Unfortunately, what can the team do in the meantime? They won’t have cap room to sign free agents. If they draft receivers highly, they may take a while to develop. Brees may be too old to benefit by then. He may not even be on the team anymore.

Brees’ contract expires after 2016 and they may just be better served playing it out. With the new figures from Wednesday’s adjustment (via Spotrac), Brees sits at a $23.8m cap hit for this year, and with an extra $10m in dead money on top of that if they trade or release him, they have to stick it out. (That’s right: Brees would leave $33.8 million dollars in dead money on the Saints’ 2015 cap.) His cap hit in 2016 soars to $30 million, but would only leave $10 million in dead money if they released him. Even considering those $20 million in savings, it may still be best to just let him play out the year and re-assess. No point in eating cap room to stink and throw a guy into the fire.  (If they really think Garrett Grayson is The Guy, another year on the bench can only help. As could drafting some more reliable receivers.)

What can be done?

It’s going to take a serious and strong drafting effort over the next two years. The cap should look better in 2017. The team would do well to mostly stay out of the free-agent market this year; they don’t have a ton of free agents (Hicks would have been the better ones), but by letting them walk, and not spending on more free agents, they might garner some compensatory picks. The Saints’ approach has not involved much of this strategy, with the team needing to rebuild to become competitive again, they should be looking to stock pile as many draft picks as possible. (The Baltimore Ravens use this strategy to great effect.)

The 2015 rookie class already has shown promising returns. Stephone Anthony still makes some rookie mistakes, but he’s been outstanding in several facets of the game. Delvin Breaux (GIF-able moments aside) and Damian Swann seem to be legit additions to the secondary. (Keenan Lewis is scheduled to come back this week; this may be the first chance for us to see the Saints’ cornerback crew at anything close to full strength.) Hau’oli Kikaha has been positive, as have some of the rookie defensive linemen, particularly Bobby Richardson. The defense is not good yet, but they have some solid young parts and a couple of guys who could be franchise cornerstones. Another draft this good on the defensive end, and the team could have the foundation they’re looking for in place.

On offense, the two biggest weak spots seem to be Tim Lelito and the receivers. If Lelito doesn’t improve, the team should try to find a guard at some point in the 2016 draft. As I’ve said many times, the team needs a true #1 receiver, someone who can make the difficult catches as well as the big plays, someone you turn to in critical situations, someone you can count on when you need a catch.

Finding a Drew Brees replacement is critical, of course. Garrett Grayson may or may not be it. But I don’t think the team should pin all its hopes on a third-round quarterback (but then again, I wasn’t that high on him to begin with).

I also want the team to lock up Terron Armstead. Yes, I think Andrus Peat can play left tackle, but I’d rather have both. They have few proven players who are young and talented enough that they could be considered foundational pieces; Armstead is one.

2016 Mock Draft

I rolled over to Fanspeak’s On the Clock Mock Draft (while they’re running a trial period where the “premium” feature, with custom boards and trades, is free). I haven’t done enough draft work for 2016 to have my own board, so I just used Fanspeak’s. (Which also means I don’t necessarily know who’s good, but the exercise was still fun nonetheless.)

I did not set the draft order. Fanspeak decided of their own accord that New Orleans deserved the #1 pick.

Here are my selections and reasoning:

http://fanspeak.com/ontheclock/sharedraft.php?d=yshmhs (NOTE: As of publishing this link was down. Picks are still written and explained below.)

YOUR PICKS

1: R1P1
JOEY BOSA
OHIO STATE
Immediate substantial upgrade to the pass-rush. Talent jumps off the screen, even in a draft full of pass rushers. Saints have been running a 4-3 a substantial amount of the time and Bosa would be perfect opposite Cam Jordan. (There’s a strong argument to take a QB here; Jared Goff is my favorite at this time. I did exploit Fanspeak’s rankings to target a different guy, as you’ll see below.)

2: R2P7
WR MICHAEL THOMAS
OHIO STATE
I then traded down with Jacksonville, acquiring the 2.07 and 4.07 for the 2.01. Thomas I don’t know much about yet, but he was Fanspeak’s highest rated receiver at the spot, and I liked what I did see of him against Virginia Tech. I’ve made it clear I think the team needs more receivers who can make difficult and contested catches, and Thomas fits the bill with his size and strength, and adds nice ability after the catch to boot.

3: R3P1
OLB DADI LHOMME NICOLAS
VIRGINIA TECH
Probably won’t be available here in reality, but again, another guy whose athleticism is evident from tape (and will likely measure out that way in the Combine as well). Jumps off the screen with a fantastic first step and very good bend, too. If they stay in the 4-3, they now have one of the best young trio of linebackers in the league in Hau’oli Kikaha, Stephone Anthony, and Nicolas– add the outside ‘backers to Bosa and Jordan, and you have four young, fearsome pass rushers. This could be a return to the glory days of the Dome Patrol. (I’m not sure if Jordan or Bosa is Wayne Martin.)

4: R4P1
WR STERLING SHEPARD
OKLAHOMA
Another guy at the top of the board who I liked when I saw. Adds more speed and quickness to the mix. I like Shepard and Thomas to make tougher catches and also draw coverage away from Cooks to let him maximize his speed.

5: R4P7
ROBERTO AGUAYO
FLORIDA STATE
He was near the top of Fanspeak’s board, and I’ve really had enough of the kicking problems that continually plague this team.

6: R5P1
QB JACOBY BRISSETT
NC STATE
Likely won’t be here in real life, but he shows some really high-level deep accuracy and ability to read progressions on film. May need some work, but truthfully could be better than Garrett Grayson. The team really should do whatever it takes to find and develop their next starter.

7: R7P1
WR BRAXTON MILLER
OHIO STATE
Okay, fine, I don’t know what to do with him, I just took him because of the name and the idea of using him in a bunch of gadget stuff. In reality, they probably take a special-teams player or a developmental offensive lineman.

I like this draft (especially if Brissett pans out, obviously). It fills in two of the most obvious weak spots on the defensive front seven, and greatly upgrades the pass rush in the process. The team keeps searching for the QB for Year One A.B. (After Brees), and adds two receivers who should substantially strengthen the group for whoever that guy is.

2016 outlook

Even assuming a draft like this and Brees back to health, this is probably still a middling team. The young talent won’t be fully developed yet. They’ll bounce back a little bit, perhaps to .500. There’s even hope they could make the playoffs in 2016, if the rookies contribute right away, Andrus Peat takes over for Zach Strief (and becomes the dominant tackle he showed the potential to be), and everyone stays healthy.

Decisions will have to be made on Kenny Vaccaro and Jairus Byrd in the 2017 offseason. (My guess will be that Vaccaro regains form and earns a second deal, but Byrd, whether because of injuries or age or both, will be let go.) The team will have to fill in for those guys, as well as anyone else dropping off due to injury or age. With this 2016 mock and presuming things go roughly as I expected, the biggest needs in 2017 will probably be at safety, interior offensive lineman (and perhaps defensive, too), and running back.

And, of course, whether or not the single most important question of the franchise’s future has been answered: Who will be the next quarterback after Drew Brees?

Podcast with Inside the Pylon: Saints Talk

Once again doing a little crossover work with our friends at Inside the Pylon, I appeared on their Thursday podcast to talk about the Saints’ struggles. You can listen here.

(I apologize in advance for the excess of “Ummmmm”s. Even being prepared doesn’t help me in the morning.)

I didn’t get to cover everything I think about the Saints’ prospects for this season and beyond, so I’m hoping to do so in a future column.

Midseason Review: NFC South

I’ll try to get a series of midseason reviews about various divisions done this week. I may not get to all of them, so I’ll try to start with the ones that interest me the most.

NFC SOUTH

New Orleans Saints
Current record: 4-4

The Saints lead the division, although they’d surely like to have a better record at this point. Losing three close games on the road in rough fashion has held them back early on. That said, they did look shakier in the early season than they have since the bye, barely beating Tampa Bay and struggling to put away Minnesota.

Two solid wins against Green Bay and at Carolina indicate that the team is a lot better than the one that struggled for six weeks. The question is: Were the better performances the result of favorable matchups, or of sustainable improvements on both sides of the ball? It’s a question with evidence to support each argument: Green Bay only stopped scoring when Aaron Rodgers was hurt, and the Saints match up particularly well with a Carolina team with one serious receiving option and a porous offensive line. On the other hand, getting Mark Ingram and Kenny Stills back to full health opened up the offense, and Rob Ryan may have used the bye week to re-engineer a defense that was conceived around the free-range ability of Jairus Byrd. For those reasons, the Saints may be the most intriguing story of the second half of the season, as they try to prove they are a real Super Bowl contender.

Carolina Panthers
Current record: 3-5-1

Losing Greg Hardy has been more difficult on the defense than I think anyone anticipated. Kelvin Benjamin has played incredibly well, all things considered, but the same problems that were perceived in this team before the season continue to surface: An undermanned offensive line and receiver crew, running backs who can’t stay healthy, and a lack of talent in the back four on defense. This roster needs to be rebuilt, and it needs to be done before Cam Newton develops too many bad habits from working with subpar talent.

Atlanta Falcons
Current record: 2-6

All that draft-day trading up and top-heavy team-building has come to roost the last two seasons for the Falcons, as injuries and lack of cap room have left them with multiple subpar units. After 2012, it would have been crazy to suggest anyone in the Falcons’ braintrust might be in jeopardy, yet less than two years later, here we are.

The team needs to build a healthy offensive line and a pass rush before it can consider itself a playoff contender again. I know this is an unreasonably short writeup, but there’s not much to say: The good (Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Desmond Trufant, eventually Jake Matthews) and bad (just about everything else) with this team are pretty obvious.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Current record: 1-7

I feel like “solid” and “high floor”, when used to describe draft prospects, often means “low ceiling.” I can’t tell you how many guys I’ve heard described that way have just been complete busts (Aaron Curry and Jason Smith are two of the more recent ones; Luke Joeckel is heading there). All this is a metaphor for Lovie Smith’s “veteran coaching presence.” His supposed “high floor” isn’t manifesting itself; the roster has a decided lack of talent and he’s doing nothing to get any kind of special performance out of it. Lovie Smith was supposed to be a throwback to the Dungy era, but right now, it’s looking more like the Hugh Culverhouse years.

Mike Glennon is probably not the answer, but he hasn’t been outright terrible, either. That said, no matter how the team goes about it, they need a real passing game to compete in the modern NFL. Smith doesn’t have much of a track record of delivering those.

Post-script: After I initially wrote this, Smith announced Josh McCown would return to being the starter. He also said Mike Glennon was still “the future of this team.” Those things appear to me to be mutually exclusive, but what do I know, I’m not an NFL head coach (of a 1-7 team).

From the Archives

A couple of pieces we wrote about incoming rookies that are newly relevant with recent player developments. These both happen to be in the AFC South:

With Zach Mettenberger taking over the starting job in Tennessee, you may want to read vix’s breakdown of his game. In general, Zone Reads had Mettenberger ranked much more highly than his sixth-round draft position.

Telvin Smith was the AFC defensive player of the week. Read some evaluation of Jacksonville’s fifth-round pick. Smith was the #34 ranked prospect overall on our final 2014 draft board.

Week 7 SuperContest Pick Review

Well, that could have gone better.

ATLANTA (+7 at Baltimore)
Result: Baltimore 29, Atlanta 7

What went right: Nothing.
What went wrong: Everything. I learned a valuable lesson in not taking a team I think is significantly worse without an enormous line. “If all goes well, they could be in position to make a backdoor cover” is a reason to stay away from a bet, not to make it.

BUFFALO (-4.5 vs. Minnesota)
Result: Buffalo 17, Minnesota 16

What went right: Buffalo’s defense held Minnesota to 16 points, and Sammy Watkins was every bit as incredible as I hoped, finishing with nine catches for 122 yards and two TDs, including the game winner.
What went wrong: Well, the Bills only scored three other points. They lost the turnover battle 4-2 (including losing all three of their fumbles); they probably could have covered if the turnover margin was even. That said, perhaps I shouldn’t have so much faith in the Buffalo Bills to do things like avoid turnovers.

CAROLINA (+7 at Green Bay)
Result: Green Bay 38, Carolina 17

What went right: See the Atlanta pick.
What went wrong: I should have known this was not a safe bet by virtue of the fact that the line was the same as Carolina’s against Cincinnati. I should have remembered that Green Bay is quite a bit better than Cincinnati, and that stopping an A.J. Green-less offense isn’t the same thing as stopping Aaron Rodgers. I also should have made some adjustments for fatigue, given that the Panthers played five full quarters the week before and were back on the road. I did a poor job estimating the skill difference between teams on these first three bets.

HOUSTON (+3.5 at Pittsburgh)
Result: Pittsburgh 30, Houston 23

What went right: Everything up until 3:06 left in the first half, during which Houston outscored Pittsburgh 13-0 and was winning by taking advantage of the very things I thought they would: Namely, using the running game to move the ball and control the clock, and allowing J.J. Watt to disrupt Pittsburgh’s offense.
What went wrong: The final three minutes of the half were a complete disaster the kind of which is rarely seen at the NFL level. Suddenly down 24-13, the Texans had to start relying on Ryan Fitzpatrick and the passing game. Ryan Fitzpatrick is not a good QB. It did not go well. I’m not sure where I should just chalk this up to a bizarre fluke, or whether I should have some built-in expectation that the Texans will blow games in egregious fashion (I certainly had it built in to my season bet on their win total).

INDIANAPOLIS (-3 vs. Cincinnati)
Result: Indianapolis 27, Cincinnati 0

What went right: Literally everything that possibly could have. Don’t bet against Andrew Luck– in the end, top-flight quarterback play cures a lot of ills and a lot of other roster holes.
What went wrong: Nothing, as far as my bet goes. Even Giovani Bernard, who I thought would be key if the Bengals were going to score an upset, was barely a factor, with only 9 carries for 17 yards.

You know the worst part? I named three picks I considered but passed up (Dallas, Denver, New Orleans), and all three ultimately won. In the future, I may scale my picks a little more toward teams I actually feel are genuinely better than the lines, rather than basing the entirety of my decision on a half-point swing. No more “Well, the line moved from 7 to 6.5 so I have to take the underdog” if I still don’t think the underdog is a reasonable favorite to cover.

Week Results: 1-4
Season Results: 19-16

Week 7 SuperContest Picks

Let’s jump right in.

ATLANTA (+7 at Baltimore)

On Pinnacle, the line has moved down to 6.5. If a line crosses the 3 or 7, or even just moves on or off it, I jump on it. I don’t love Atlanta, but they have the offensive firepower to score a garbage TD to close the line. I don’t really see a blowout happening here, even though Atlanta’s offensive line might get eaten alive.

BUFFALO (-4.5 vs. Minnesota)

This has moved a half-point to -5. More to the point, I’ve learned my lesson from last week’s disastrous Minnesota pick: Don’t take a rookie QB behind a shaky offensive line against a great defensive line. Buffalo is at home, and I’m not sure the Vikings have anyone who can cover Sammy Watkins.

CAROLINA (+7 at Green Bay)

This line has also moved to 6.5. I don’t much care for Carolina’s chance to slow down Green Bay, but even without Greg Hardy, they should have an advantage in the trenches there. More to the point, Cam Newton is healthy enough to run the read option again, and Green Bay’s inability to stop the read option is extremely well documented by now.

HOUSTON (+3.5 at Pittsburgh)

This has moved to 3 on Pinnacle, so you know it was another priority for me. I also like the matchup given that Pittsburgh’s defense is no longer the fearsome unit its reputation carries. I’m pretty sure Arian Foster has a non-zero chance to crack 200 yards. The Rooney’s incredible patience with coaches and GMs is going to bite them in the ass over the next few years, as Mike Tomlin less and less seems like a coach who adds anything to a team’s win probability, and Kevin Colbert keeps spending money on veterans who don’t deserve it.

INDIANAPOLIS (-3 vs. Cincinnati)

I passed a couple of other lines that moved (Dallas, Denver, New Orleans) because I just really think that, all else being equal, Andrew Luck is going to dominate this game. I see something similar to the Colts’ win over Baltimore happening. Without A.J. Green, it’s tough to see Andy Dalton making enough happen to keep up, and as great as the Bengals’ defense can be, they’ve also given up 80 points in their last two games. I think it’s arguable that Indianapolis has a better offense than either New England or Carolina. (Which is not to say I expect 40+ points, just that I think Indianapolis covers, unless the Bengals’ game plan is almost entirely Giovani Bernard-centered and they’re able to dominate the time of possession.)