Where should La’el Collins sign?

I don’t have anything new to add to the story of La’el Collins and his murdered ex-girlfriend. It’s a tragedy whether or not he was involved; all indicators seem to say he was not, which adds a layer of unfairness to how Collins was treated in this situation.

What I do want to discuss is the silver lining for Collins: He is now free to sign anywhere as an undrafted free agent, and since he is only required to sign a three-year contract, can begin negotiations on his next deal a year sooner.

With that in mind, I wanted to take a look at some ideal landing spots for Collins, keeping two things in mind:

• I want a spot where he can come in and start from day one. He’s talented enough to do so and this would maximize his earning potential for his next contract, obviously a major concern now that he doesn’t have the guaranteed payday that comes with being a high first-round pick.
• Along that same vein, reports are suggesting that he wants to go somewhere he can play tackle for that reason, and I agree– both that he should and that he’s capable of it.
• By most accounts, Collins would fit better in a gap system than in a zone system. While I can’t be 100% certain on what everyone will run or the degree to which that’s true, I’ll keep it in mind.

All depth charts and mention of starting lineups and rosters use information taken from the terrific work done at ourlads.com.

Good fits

Tampa Bay

Tampa Bay had virtually nothing on the offensive line this year (aside from what remains of Logan Mankins), and addressed that problem by drafting Donovan Smith and Ali Marpet. Collins is better than both; I think the line would be more successful with Collins at left tackle and Smith at right. (Much better than the Collins they had there last year, for sure.)

Tampa is installing a youth movement on offense, and protecting Jameis Winston is priority number one. (Winston has reportedly lobbied Collins to sign there.) This would make the line look something like, say, Collins – Mankins – Evan Dietrich-Smith – Marpet – Smith. A vast step up from where they were last year.

Detroit

Detroit has built a surprisingly strong offensive line with good depth. The one question mark is right tackle LaAdrian Waddle, who acquitted himself reasonably well last year but is still nowhere near the talent Collins is. This would solidify Riley Reiff, Collins, and Larry Warford at three of the line spots, while Laken Tomlinson, Travis Swanson, and Manny Ramirez compete for the other two.

Oakland

I couldn’t name who Oakland’s tackles are, outside of Menelik Watson (and I’m not even sure he’s a starting-caliber player). After looking it up, I realize the starters are Donald Penn and Austin Howard. Good Lord. This team needs Collins.

San Diego

It becomes a lot easier to kick D.J. Fluker inside to guard if Collins is there to play right tackle. Assuming last year’s third-round pick Chris Watt can play center (as he’s penciled in to do), a line of King Dunlap – Orlando Franklin – Watt – Fluker – Collins is pretty good. Melvin Gordon would like it.

Carolina

Because, duh. I wish I could remember who wrote it, but I read the other day the best description I can think of Carolina’s line: “Carolina is starting possibly the only two offensive tackles in history who are more famous for something other than being good offensive tackles.”

Maybe

Buffalo

Rex Ryan met with Collins in Baton Rouge, so the interest is clear. The “maybe” comes from whether or not Collins would get a legitimate chance to start at tackle. The Bills only have three tackles on the roster, and only Cordy Glenn should really be starting in the NFL. (Seantrel Henderson may get there someday; I think Cyrus Kouandijo’s knee is shot.) They’re thick at guard with the signing of Richie Incognito and the drafting of John Miller. (I don’t think Incognito should be back in the league, but even without him, a line of Glenn – Miller – Eric Wood – Cyril Richardson – Collins isn’t bad– or, if Richardson really stinks, kick Glenn inside and make him one of the best guards in the league.)

Chicago

A very similar situation to Detroit’s: A passable right tackle and a rookie drafted to help solidify the interior line. Collins replacing Jordan Mills would be a solid upgrade.

Washington

Brandon Scherff ain’t gonna work at right tackle. Just move him inside already and add Collins. Adding Scherff and Collins to Trent Williams would give this team three legit offensive linemen, instead of one.

Indianapolis

The real question here is if the team is ready to move on from Gosder Cherilus. Never a world-beating tackle, Cherilus’ microfracture surgery a few years ago may have ended whatever claims he had at having top-flight tackle skills. Enter Collins to step in and replace him.

Collins could also shore up in the interior line, where the Colts have linemen in quantity but questionable quality, but we’re looking for a spot he can play right tackle (or even left tackle, if the team is weak enough there).

Close but no cigar

Atlanta

With yet another serious knee injury, I think the likelihood that Sam Baker’s career is toast is depressingly high. The current listed starter at right tackle is Ryan Schraeder– “Who?” was my reaction as well. Collins could start at right tackle right away.

Unfortunately, new OC Kyle Shanahan is known for using a zone-blocking scheme, and as long as we’re projecting Collins to be a better fit for a gap-based offense, that precludes him signing here.

Miami

Word is that LSU alums Jarvis Landry and Anthony Johnson have been trying to recruit Collins. I’m sure Miami would love to have a tackle of Collins’ caliber as insurance in case Branden Albert’s knee injury is too severe for him to return to his previous level of play. Unfortunately, I doubt Collins is going to want to go anywhere where he’s expected to start at guard (neither Albert nor Ja’Wuan James are kicking inside for him), and even less so that he’ll want to go somewhere he might not start right away.

St. Louis

I think he’s better than anyone they drafted, but they still drafted a bunch of lineman, and they’re going to play them. To be honest, I don’t think Collins should go to a team with as little seeming idea what they’re doing as the Rams (but that’s a story for another column).

 

I’m sure other teams would be interested in La’el Collins. I thought he was a tremendous prospect, and would likely be an upgrade somewhere on the line for any team. But he’s going to have particular needs when choosing the right fit for him, and I think these teams are best poised to offer him what he wants.

The Chart of Picks By Team Is Complete

Now, you can view every pick your team made, along with our grade of the player, in one handy spreadsheet.

Don’t lose too much heart if we have a “N/A” grade next to your player. It simply means we didn’t have the chance to evaluate the player properly. Some of those players we’ve heard of; some of them we haven’t. Either way, we didn’t see enough of or hear enough from other experts about them to assign them a grade with any confidence.

Since we try to focus on top prospects first and work our way down, it’s rare we get to watch anyone we grade as “undraftable”, but it does happen. That didn’t happen this year; any “undraftable” drafted players would have been marked as such on the chart.

Some interesting tidbits about the chart and pick value:

• The biggest gap between our ranking of a player we actually graded and his selection spot was St. Louis’ third-round selection of Sean Mannion, our no. 307 player taken with pick no. 89. (Of course, you could argue that Green Bay’s selection of a fifth-round safety at no. 30 represented worse real value, and you’d probably be right.)
• The lowest-ranked player on our board who was still drafted was linebacker Edmond Robinson of Newberry, no. 324 out of 329 graded prospects. (He was taken by Minnesota with pick no. 232.) Runner-up: Deon Simon, The Jets’ new defensive tackle from Northwestern State, no. 320 (selected no. 223).
• The highest-selected player we did not grade was Auburn DT Angelo Blackson, taken no. 100 by Tennessee.
• Pittsburgh arguably had the deepest draft; all eight of their picks were graded in our top 150 prospects. (They did use their second-rounder on a prospect we had a fourth-round grade on, but every other selection represented equal or greater value than the pick itself.)
• The only teams besides Pittsburgh whose draft classes consisted entirely of players we graded were Minnesota (ten selections), Miami (seven), Chicago (six), the New York Jets (six), and San Diego (five).
• Some teams besides Pittsburgh who got consistently good value or got a lot of it late: Tennessee, Atlanta, New Orleans, and Miami.
• Jacksonville had a curious draft: After getting poor value on their first two selections, they got tremendous value on their third-, fifth-, and sixth-round selections (and broke even on their fourth by our rankings).
• Teams who had a similarly curious start to the draft, if not quite the finish Jacksonville did, include Baltimore, and the New York Giants. (Of the first three prospects these teams selected, the third was the one we graded highest.)
• Carolina’s first three picks were all graded between no. 62 and no. 68 on our board.
• St. Louis didn’t use a single selection on a player whose grade was in a tier equal to or better than where they made the selection. (Todd Gurley, the no. 10 selection, was rated no. 13, but he was in the “Mid 1st” tier, and not the “Top 10” tier, of which multiple players were available at the Rams’ selection.)
• Of Oakland’s ten picks, five of them were of prospects we didn’t grade, and only one– tight end Clive Walford– was the best player available at his position when the Raiders selected him.
• Two prospects were drafted at the exact place we had them ranked: Nelson Agholor at no. 20 (Eagles) and Jarvis Harrison at no. 152 (Jets).

Enjoy.

Some helpful charts and spreadsheets for you from Day Two

I’ve linked to four spreadsheets we made over the course of the day to help with your NFL Draft experience.

The first won’t be too much help now, but in case you wanted to view the Day 2 mock vixticator and I made in the afternoon, before proceedings resumed, now you can.

The second is a list of our overall big board, with prospects already drafted marked out in red.

The third is a repeat of what we did on day 1, another list of brief reactions to picks.

And the fourth chart is a list of picks by team, including our grades of each prospect, so you can compare what we thought of them to where they were drafted.

Griddle Takes: Round 1 of the NFL Draft

Fresh off the griddle so you know they’re piping hot, vix and I have our takes on each pick in this draft.

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State

• vix: Winston regressed in his soph season. His flaws on tape (decision making, random mechanical lapses) didn’t get as much attention as his off-field concerns. I’d still take him top 5 because I grade him as a 1st round QB, but give me Mariota all day.
• nath: Obvious pick and the right one in my mind. Winston is an easier evaluation than Mariota, because of the offense he played in, but it’s also the reason it’s easy to see his very high football IQ and innate performance intelligence. Gotta start reading underneath coverages better and leaving the bonehead plays behind, but I feel confident he’ll be a “franchise QB.”

2. Tennessee Titans – Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon

• vix: I’m a fan of Mettenberger and Mariota. They should start Mett in order to showcase him for teams in ’16, and cash him in for some picks. If Mariota reaches his ceiling, or comes remotely close, he’ll turn this franchise around.
• nath: I’m not as high on Mariota as vix is but I grade him highly enough that you can take him here. He’ll need work; I’m not sure what to make of him with Ken Whisenhunt. He’s not a typical Whisenhunt QB, but then, typical Whisenhunt QBs have mostly been crap.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars – Dante Fowler Jr., EDGE, Florida

• vix: How do you not select Leonard Williams? Fowler is capable of leaping off the screen on tape, but his lack of production at Florida is worrisome. Looks fantastic in that suit at least!
• nath: He’s a guy who jumps out at first on tape but then you realize he actually isn’t making many big plays. Worried that lack of production + relatively ordinary athleticism could add up to a bust.

4. Oakland Raiders – Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama

• vix: I would’ve loved to see Williams grow along with Mack. That defense starts looking scary. Except, no. Cooper isn’t as great as his production indicates. Doesn’t dazzle as much as he simply does his job. Unlikely to bust, in any event.
• nath: Should have taken Kevin White. Cooper is pretty maxed out, but I think White has room to improve into a true #1.

5. Washington Potatoes – Brandon Scherff, G, Iowa

• vix: He’s the best guard in the draft. Not tackle. An exceptional run blocker who mauls defenders. Footwork in pass protection is too shaky to play left tackle. He’ll help this line though.
• nath: Safe, solid, dull pick. I would have liked La’el Collins here, although his connection to a recently murdered woman, fairly or not (I lean “not”), has by all accounts made him completely undraftable. Leonard Williams probably a better pick, but damn, their line sucked, so I can’t complain.

6. New York Jets – Leonard Williams, DL, USC

• vix: I am sitting my quarterback when we play the Jets now. Wilkerson, Richardson, AND Williams? Holy hell. What a nightmare D-FENSE. Bowles worked without elite edge rushers at Arizona last year lest ye forgot.
• nath: Perfect situation for Williams; surrounded by two stud linemen, he can wreak the most havoc, and probably allay any concerns he doesn’t have the top-flight athleticism you want in the position.

7. Chicago Bears – Kevin White, WR, West Virginia

• vix: Best player available, and fills a giant need. Gotta love when that happens. White is my top receiver in this (really deep) class. His playmaking ability reminds me of Larry Fitzgerald.
• nath: Should have gone sooner. Great pick for this team. White/Jeffery is a terrifying combo.

8. Atlanta Falcons – Vic Beasley, EDGE, Clemson

• vix: Easily the most outstanding pass rusher in the nation. Dan Quinn must be doing backflips. Beasley at LEO will be exciting.
• nath: Love the pick. Hate the team. Boo, screw you, Falcons.

9. New York Giants – Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami-FL

• vix: My top left tackle prospect. His game against South Carolina was flawless. Sure, he needs to improve, and some other tapes aren’t so hot, but Flowers has the highest ceiling of any tackle in the draft. I like this pick.
• nath: Count me in the group that doubts Flowers– I don’t think he has the agility or footwork to be an NFL left tackle. He played most of the year with a knee brace, and his kick-step looks like the kick-step of a guy with a bum knee. Second time in three years Giants have chosen a non-LT OL in the first round– between you and me, I don’t think they’re very good at drafting.

10. St. Louis Rams – Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia

• vix: The best running back since *checks calendar* Jim Brown, y’all. Don’t need no stinkin’ ACL to beast mode all over the NFC West. Right? But seriously, I’m totally on board with selecting Gurley in the top 10. He can be the best runner in the NFL from the first snap he takes.
• nath: Love Gurley’s talent, but why did a team with a perfectly good starting RB (Tre Mason) and so many other problems take him? Jeff Fisher seems to think the rules haven’t changed since 1978, and running 50 times a game + a defense that beats people up (literally) is enough to win games. Here’s to another 7-9 season.

11. Minnesota Vikings – Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State

• vix: He’s my favorite corner by a comfortable margin. I hate the Vikings for being so good at drafting. Good luck covering Megatron though. Waynes is special.
• nath: Not as high as others on Waynes– DeVante Parker here would have been fantastic. Waynes is very fast but I’m not as sure about his ability to turn, and he played very grabby at MSU which he won’t be able to do in the pros.

12. Cleveland Browns – Danny Shelton, NT, Washington

• vix: Large and in charge. Beefs up run defense. Has some ability to pass rush, but not enough to be scary. I’m not sold that he’s an every down player. He was gassed after a few drills at the Senior Bowl.
• nath: Yeah, I just don’t believe two-down defensive tackles are as valuable in this day and age, but Shelton is, uh, fine, I guess. He moves fairly well for a dude his size, but the comparisons to Ngata or Poe are absurd.

13. New Orleans Saints – Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford

• vix: Best pass protector at left tackle. He doesn’t get much push in the run game. Must learn to play lower (he’s really, really tall). Saints know how to develop offensive lineman. Peat has plenty of room to improve.
• nath: Love it. Basically my BPA here (as it seems teams weren’t willing to touch Randy Gregory in round 1). Zach Strief is old and better suited to being a swing tackle. Peat will need some coaching but the Saints are great at coaching linemen– he’s the one guy in this draft I think can be a true blindside protector.

14. Miami Dolphins – DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville

• vix: In related news, Greg Jennings has been released by the Dolphins. Parker plays too soft for my liking. Jarvis Landry can school him in the art of badassery perhaps. This is my only concern, otherwise Parker is damn good. Compliments their receiving group well.
• nath: Love Parker when he’s healthy, love the A.J. Green comps (including the recurring foot problems). Miami had a collection of very good WR2s and 3s. Now they have a 1. Great pick for them.

15. San Diego Chargers (trade with San Francisco) – Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin

• vix: The Jamaal Charles comparison is dead on. San Diego needed a running back. Gordon is no Gurley, but he’s ridiculously good as well. Watch him break the single game record for rushing against Nebraska if you have time and haven’t seen it yet.
• nath: I think Gordon is overrated, but everyone knew San Diego was taking him. The only funny part is that they traded up for him.

16. Houston Texans – Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest

• vix: I’m a bit surprised to see Johnson picked this high, but the more I think about it the less I am. His tape is excellent, especially that closing speed. How is Dupree still available?
• nath: Seems fine. Solid. Not sexy. Teams liked him a lot– his film was supposed to be quite good but I never got to watch it. No complaints.

17. San Francisco (via San Diego) – Arik Armstead, DL, Oregon

• vix: Raw is an understatement with Armstead. Needs a ton of work. He flashes brilliance here and there, with strong hands. I’ll be shocked if he’s ready to start immediately. Pure upside pick.
• nath: I thought it was funny how many places mocked Armstead to SF consistently, and how mad SF fans were about it. Well, congrats, you got a terribly raw athlete who may or may not develop.

18. Kansas City Chiefs – Marcus Peters, CB, Washington

• vix: Physical press corner with some off field issues. Should start right away. Chiefs continue to build on strength. Defense, defense, more defense. Alas, Alex Smith.
• nath: My #1 CB in this draft. Great pick for them. Peters / Gaines / Smith a pretty bad-ass CB trio. Never thought they’d make up for letting Flowers and Carr walk.

19. Cleveland Browns – Cameron Erving, C/G/T, Florida State

• vix: He’s playing guard with Alex Mack, that’s for sure. The Browns are building a wall around Johnny Manziel so he can escape it and get hit anyways. Brilliant.
• nath: So, we can all agree he’s moving to center in 2016, after a year of Alex Mack showing he never really recovered from his injury, right? Another fine pick– unspectacular but solid.

20. Philadelphia Eagles – Nelson Agholor, WR, USC

• vix: I would’ve taken Agholor ahead of Parker. Big fan. I believe he can be a true #1 receiver. Philly was looking weak at the position before today. No longer.
• nath: Like Agholor a lot. Definitely the best receiver available, and receiver is a huge need for Philadelphia. After all the hoopla about Whirlwind Chip and his Trade Tornados, they stay put and make a smart selection.

21. Cincinnati Bengals – Cedric Ogbuehi, OT, Texas A&M

• vix: I guess the Bengals aren’t worried about his ACL. Ogbuehi is a ridiculous athlete at tackle, but he isn’t a bully. He will look elite for most of the game and then get destroyed on several plays. Can protect speed better than power.
• nath: I like Ogbuehi enough that I think it’s a good pick. Likely at least one of Andrew Whitworth and Andre Smith will be gone next year. Ogbuehi can recover and then step in as a starter.

22. Pittsburgh Steelers – Alvin “Bud” Dupree, EDGE, Kentucky

• vix: Mistakes were made selecting Jarvis Jones. Dupree is much better. I’m angry that the Steelers got him one pick before my beloved Lions.
• nath: One of the best values so far, although I understand the concerns about “Athlete who can’t play football.” Still, from the team that picked Jarvis Jones and took Ryan Shazier over C.J. Mosley, this is a positive step.

23. Denver Broncos (trade with Detroit) – Shane Ray, EDGE, Missouri

• vix: Explosive first step, nothing else. He’ll be less dominant in the NFL. Must add a ton of moves to his arsenal. Limited athleticism. Awful combine.
• nath: Let’s get the bright side out of the way: At least on this team Ray won’t have to be the best pass rusher, and he might be more effective as that third or fourth guy. You can probably infer that I don’t think a team should take a third or fourth guy in the first round, let alone trade up for him.

24. Arizona Cardinals – D.J. Humphries, OT, Florida

• vix: Someone needs to explain the NFL’s love for Humphries. He was abused by none other than the aforementioned Shane Ray. I’m not seeing whatever is there with him.
• nath: I like a couple of guys better, but I think Humphries is athletic enough to justify the selection. Still growing– lots of room to improve.

25. Carolina Panthers – Shaq Thompson, LB, Washington

• vix: My face is officially melted. Didn’t expect Shaq to go this high. Carolina is one of the few teams where I can see him shine. They can protect him with a strong defensive line (Shaq is undersized). He’ll be a special teams ace, and play next to one of the greats in Kuechly.
• nath: Wat. I heard the rumors, and it makes sense for a team that got so much out of Thomas Davis, but their offensive line is so dire I would have much preferred one of the remaining tackles (Clemmings or Fisher, most likely).

26. Baltimore Ravens – Breshad Perriman, WR, UCF

• vix: Very raw route runner. Perriman is really strong and fast. Knew he would go around here, but not my favorite receiver on the board. His name is Devin Smith.
• nath: Looks like a receiver except for the route-running and catching part. Glad it’s not my team that has to worry about whether or not he can do that stuff. Vix is right; Smith would have been a killer fit here.

27. Dallas Cowboys – Byron Jones, CB, Connecticut

• vix: I wasn’t sold on Jones as a first rounder until I saw his tape against Boise State. It’s an extremely strong game. Still want to see more of him. Worst case scenario: he can jump really far.
• nath: Good athlete, seems like a good player, not quite as high as I had him ranked, but I don’t hate the selection or anything.

28. Detroit Lions (via Denver) – Laken Tomlinson, G, Duke

• vix: Well, the Lions sure have a lot of beef inside with Warford, Swanson, and now Tomlinson. Hard to be excited by a Duke guard not named JJ Redick. Wait, Duke has a football team?
• nath: Not sure he stood out enough from the other guards to merit a first-rounder. Still seemed like a quality player; I hear mixed opinions on him, so I’m not as confident in my lower grade. Probably a good choice.

29. Indianapolis Colts – Phillip Dorsett, WR, Miami-FL

• vix: Hey, this isn’t Devin Smith. I’m a fan of Dorsett too, but not this high. Not a massive blunder given he wouldn’t have been there with their next pick. A reach is still a reach.
• nath: I guess the thinking is “One T.Y. Hilton worked out great; why not two?” But this team already has Hilton, Andre Johnson, Donte Moncrief, and Duron Carter. Did they really need a fifth receiver with their first-rounder?

30. Green Bay Packers – Damarious Randall, S, Arizona State

• vix: Laugh out loud. Sorry Packer fans, not sorry. Randall cannot cover, tackle, or, well, he’s just not very good. I’ll leave it at that.
• nath: LOL. I see some impressive statistics on Randall, but when I watch him, I see a guy who takes terrible angles and falls down a lot. Why do teams love him? Why did Green Bay take a bad player with their first-round pick at the same position they took a good player with their first-round pick last year?

31. New Orleans Saints – Stephone Anthony, LB, Clemson

• vix: Versatile linebacker that can play anywhere in a 4-3, or inside as he will with the Saints 3-4 hybrid. Sniffs out screens really well. Smart, tough player.
• nath: Big fan. Eric Kendricks was my #1 ILB, but his medical has teams scared, and Anthony was my #2. His athleticism shows on the field, and I think he’s a fast, instinctive playmaker. Not quite as high as I graded him but happy to have him on my team.

32. New England Patriots – Malcom Brown, DT, Texas

• vix: He’s not a world beater, but Brown is a nice pick at this point. He can play either 5 tech or 3 tech, it fits with the Patriots defensive philosophy.
• nath: I literally have no opinion of Malcom Brown. My grade was a guess based on the opinions of others. But I ranked him 31 overall, and he went 32, so I probably guessed well.

Explaining some changes on our Big Board

This will most likely be the last update on our Big Board before the draft (unless something drastic happens before then– discovering a heretofore unknown prospect, or a major piece of news lowering someone’s stock, for example). As such, I feel fairly comfortable with the final decisions we’ve made. Thus, I’d like to explain the ones that don’t seem to jive with popular opinion, and why we settled on the decisions we did.

We’ll start with what probably stands out the most right now, our edge-rusher rankings…

Dante Fowler at 22, a tier behind Owamagbe Odighizuwa and Preston Smith

This one is simple, though oddly controversial. When evaluating edge players, one of our top priorities is: Can he provide pass rush around the corner? Other skills are secondary to this. (That’s why Vic Beasley is our #1 EDGE and Randy Gregory, despite his rawness and potential to smoke his way out of the league, is our #2. More on this in a second.) While Fowler does many things well, is explosive, versatile, and an effective blitzer, he isn’t really a top-quality pass-rushing prospect. On film, he doesn’t show much ability to get around the corner, with a lack of bend and ability to turn while maintaining speed confirmed by his 7.40 3-cone time. Fowler only had 5.5 sacks in the regular season (before three in his bowl game), and a significant number of those came on blitzes. I think Fowler is a guy whose athleticism doesn’t necessarily translate into production. (While you can say the same thing about Bud Dupree, Dupree’s athleticism is off the charts compared to Fowler’s, and even with a similarly poor 3-cone time, Dupree’s other athletic measurements are still good enough to qualify him as one of Justis Mosqueada’s Force Players.)

And speaking of Force Players, Smith and Odighizuwa both qualify. That shows up on film, too: Odighizuwa has some hip problems, but he does a great job converting strength to power and with his bull rush. Meanwhile, Smith is larger than a traditional edge rusher, but he also projects as someone who can move all across the formation, a la Michael Bennett (the current Seahawk, not the Ohio State prospect), and still be effective.

I don’t think those two are necessarily elite prospects– hence why they’re only #4 and #5 on my edge-rusher board. But their ability to rush the passer makes them worthy first-round picks, certainly compared to an edge player I have significant questions about on that point.

Brett Hundley #15 and Dorial Green-Beckham #16

Here’s something to think about: The number of prospects with the talent to be a top-flight NFL player at his position (or, at least, at the quarterback position, a reliable enough guy to be a long-term starter) are rare. (That’s also why we have Todd Gurley so high despite his ACL tear, though that one seems much less controversial.)

Dorial Green-Beckham hasn’t played football in over a year and has some serious questions surrounding his off-field behavior. Nobody denies this. (The domestic violence is much more troubling than the cannabis, certainly.) At the same time, nobody denies that he has the talent to be the best receiver in the league someday.

I’m not in the position where I can adequately assess how risky Green-Beckham’s off-field problems are going forward. To that end, I can’t gauge how they will affect his status as a prospect beyond some vague sense that I should downgrade him. That said, I also believe if he hadn’t been kicked out of school for the off-field incidents, and if he had played football last season, he’d be the #1 prospect in this draft and would go off the board in the first three selections. This ranking attempts to reflect that level of talent, combined with the questions surrounding any prospect who sat out a year and may have had his development stunted.

Brett Hundley does not have those off-field problems, but he has people asking similar questions about his game. Thing is, many of the criticisms I’ve heard don’t seem to stand up to much scrutiny. I hear Hundley is an inaccurate quarterback who makes predetermined throws, who can’t read defenses, who drops his eyes too readily, who has no pocket presence and takes off running at the first sign of pressure, then I watch plays like the ones I just linked.

http://www.draftbreakdown.com/gif-embed/?clip=255672&gif=EnviousSentimentalAsp

Sure, Hundley needs to do those things more consistently. But if the argument is that he can’t do those things, plays like these dispel that notion.

Hundley certainly needs refinement to be a successful NFL quarterback, but that’s true of every prospect in this draft. Jameis Winston needs to learn to read underneath coverage and to learn what kind of windows he can and cannot make throws into. Marcus Mariota needs to fix his mechanics, develop more consistent accuracy, and learn to adapt his play in the moment (which may not be possible). Hundley can do many things at an extremely high level, he just has to learn to do them more consistently, and un-learn any bad habits he may have picked up at UCLA.

Reports are that the coaching staff didn’t allow him freedom to audible; it’s possible that his penchant for running was developed from having to deal with plays he knew were broken. Watching UCLA’s film, it’s clear Hundley often had to run for the sheer reason that the offensive line could not block for him consistently. It’s also clear that the coaches did not adjust their route combinations as they should have to provide Hundley with more ways to get the ball out quickly.

Take a look at how few other offensive prospects UCLA has for this year’s draft, and how they’re rated. Last year, the only drafted players from UCLA’s offense were Xavier Su’a-Filo and Shaq Evans, neither of whom made any sort of impact this past season (we gave Evans a “7th/PFA” grade last year, but the Jets took him in the fourth round anyway).

It’s possible Hundley’s struggles were due to overcompensating for a lack of surrounding talent and a lack of faith shown by the coaching staff. (If you think that’s a bad sign for Hundley, remember that Jim Mora Jr. got the Atlanta Falcons job and immediately tried to turn Michael Vick into a high-accuracy, short-yardage West Coast pocket passer.) While I don’t believe you can cite statistics readily when discussing college players, I do believe they can tell you more about a prospect than people want to believe, given the right context. Hundley’s numbers over three seasons, 40 starts, in a Power 5 conference, and with not a lot of supporting talent on hand to help him are pretty damn good, even we look at only his passing numbers and ignore his prodigious rushing talent:

Hundley went 29-11 in those 40 starts as well; he wasn’t inflating his numbers in garbage time. And not only were those numbers very good, they continued to improve in his time at UCLA. (If the touchdown totals seem low, consider his lack of receiving talent and his 30 rushing touchdowns as mitigating.)

It’s the Cam Newton argument: If one player has the talent to carry your team this far despite a weak supporting cast, he has the talent for the NFL. (Hundley didn’t carry UCLA nearly as far as Newton carried Auburn, but I’m also not arguing he should be taken #1 overall.)

All of our scouts who have watched Hundley in detail agree that he’s being underrated by the consensus at large and is worth a first-round pick on Thursday. We’re not the only ones; Matt Waldman of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio has Hundley ahead of Marcus Mariota as his #2 QB, having done extensive work writing about, discussing, and analyzing Hundley. (I must tip my hat to him for turning me on to that collection of plays I linked earlier.)

We think both Dorial Green-Beckham and Brett Hundley have much more potential as players than most of the draft community seems to think.

Shaq Thompson as a third-rounder

Okay, I couldn’t think of anything else too controversial (many of our other discrepancies are because we rank raw, unproven prospects like Arik Armstead and Breshad Perriman lower than they will likely go). Considering where Thompson started the draft process ranked, this seems like a good choice.

I didn’t really know in my heart where I regarded Thompson until our Twitter mock draft, where, despite having him listed in the early-to-mid second round on the Big Board, neither of us could pull the trigger until midway through the third. He scares me a bit; he’s too small for linebacker and not athletic enough for safety. He has good instincts, but I have serious questions about his capacity to find a fit in an NFL defense. A creative coach might be able to make the most of him, but he doesn’t have the kind of blow-you-away athleticism that he would need to justify regarding him highly.

Zone Reads Twitter Mock

Last night, vix and I mocked the first two rounds of the draft on Twitter, alternating picks. As a bonus for website readers and forum viewers, we did a third round privately.

Here’s the thread with the picks and discussion. Feel free to discuss either here or there.

If you’d like to see the Twitter conversation with the original picks, you can find it here.

The Mountain: Carl Davis

The most consistent thing I hear about Iowa defensive tackle Carl Davis is that his tape is inconsistent. Now, I am not calling these draft experts liars; they have more game tapes to watch and more knowledge of the game than myself. I can only go off of what I see, but what I see tells a different story. Draft Breakdown only has two games for Davis from 2014: Nebraska and Indiana. He completely dominates both of these contests. The other chance I had to watch Davis was through NFL Network’s coverage of the Senior Bowl practices. He was named the Most Outstanding Practice Player of the Week by a panel of NFL scouts: Not among defensive lineman; I mean out of every player at the Senior Bowl.

Let’s look at those two games.

Nebraska

We’ll start with a couple of his poorest plays of this game, because they happen right at the beginning. On the first defensive play for Iowa, Davis faces an immediate double team from the center and guard. The guard is able to continue moving Davis away from the point of attack after the center peels off. Nebraska gets a good seven yards on first down behind this block.

http://www.draftbreakdown.com/gif-embed/?clip=257250&gif=DeliriousUglyHalicore

We see a similar outcome two plays later.

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The remainder of this game is essentially a highlight reel with Davis asserting his dominance.

Using a spin move from the inside is generally a bad idea– where can you go with it? It isn’t a play you want a habit of going to, but having it in your repertoire is a good thing. Davis’ spin move here leads to a turnover (and touchdown).

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On the very next play, he swims right around the same guard.

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I also want to bring some attention to this play to the right:

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and this play to the left:

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What do I see on those plays? I see a 320-pound player getting quickly to the outside in both directions.

You hear a lot of talk about ‘stiff hips’ in the draft community. For a guy this big, Davis has remarkable bio-mechanics. Watch how quickly he explodes towards his right on this play and creates a huge lane for his fellow defensive tackle.

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I haven’t even mentioned his strength yet. On this play, he shoves the center four yards behind the line of scrimmage. So much for any cutback lanes.

http://www.draftbreakdown.com/gif-embed/?clip=257250&gif=RectangularNaughtyGalapagosdove

He ends that drive in a hurry, and for the cherry on top, he blocks the field goal attempt.

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The last two plays I will show you are among his best in the game. First on a run play, he blows the right guard backwards, and reaches his arm out to bring down the runner for a loss.

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Now, on this pass play, all I can think is how rare it is for a man the size of Davis to come bearing down on the quarterback with such closing speed.

http://www.draftbreakdown.com/gif-embed/?clip=257250&gif=AncientMagnificentEkaltadeta

The game continues into overtime. By no means was he finished putting his mark on the game. In fact, I left out a number of quality plays from this one. Watch all of it and you’ll see even more dominance.

Indiana

Carl Davis wastes no time making an impact against Indiana. Here we see him lined up shading the center, but at the snap he gets completely across the right guard with one swim move. That’s crazy. That pressure forces a bad pass:

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A few plays later he whips around the center with a right swim to get pressure up the middle:

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And then on this play, lined up in a 3-technique, he stunts around towards the right tackle, literally smacks him out of the way, and eats the quarterback for lunch.

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That is my favorite play from Davis, no contest.

The center must know he is defeated on this play as soon as the ball is snapped, right? Davis is too strong at the point of attack:

http://www.draftbreakdown.com/gif-embed/?clip=255799&gif=IllinformedEthicalFruitbat

Now, this game wasn’t perfect, either. I showed Nebraska successfully double-teaming Davis a few times. In this game, Indiana seals Davis off here from a similar pre-snap alignment by effectively trapping him with the guard:

http://www.draftbreakdown.com/gif-embed/?clip=255799&gif=WelloffDisfiguredDuiker

They botch the play afterwards, of course.

Late in the game, Davis turns his back to the play on 3rd-and-short, and I assign him the blame for these points. A spin move can work occasionally on passing downs. Against the run, there’s no excuse: Do not turn from the play. Davis’ spin move turns his back to the play, and Tevin Coleman runs right past him:

http://www.draftbreakdown.com/gif-embed/?clip=255799&gif=CavernousDeterminedDonkey

The Wrap

Based exclusively on what I’ve seen from Carl Davis, he’s the best defensive tackle in this draft class. I watched the Senior Bowl practices with him and Danny Shelton. While Shelton was no slouch himself, it was clear to me that Davis was the more impressive player that week.

Does this mean Davis is a better prospect? Not necessarily. I continue to read and hear about Davis’ inconsistent tape from the draft community. Having not seen anything from 2014 beyond what I have described, I cannot offer any opinion. What I have seen was a mostly dominant interior force who was consistently effective enough for my needs. At minimum, I know he’s capable of playing at a very high level: You don’t accidentally play as well as he did in these two games. I really want to see more of his 2014 tape before the draft.

Team Mock Draft: New Orleans Saints

I thought I’d do a few of these while it occurred to me. I don’t know how many I’ll finish by draft time, but based on our rankings and projections, these are drafts that I think match a team’s needs well with the expected talent available at each position. (I’ve also included some other possible selections for the Day One and Two picks, in case the player I mentioned is already gone or that need has been filled.)

I’ll start with my favorite team, the New Orleans Saints.

Round 1, Pick 13
Bud Dupree, EDGE, Kentucky

I expect Dupree to be the last of the “big four” (I do not count Shane Ray among that group anymore) edge guys available at this point. That makes him a good value here and an obvious selection for a team hurting on defense.

Possible Alternatives: Randy Gregory, EDGE, Nebraska; DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville; Marcus Peters, CB, Washington

Round 1, Pick 31
Brett Hundley, QB, UCLA

You can see my reasoning in the previous mock draft I wrote. Hundley would be allowed to sit until he was ready, and in an ideal situation as well. If the Saints don’t think their quarterback of the future is here, though, several potential options remain:

Possible Alternatives: Eric Kendricks, LB, UCLA; Nelson Agholor, WR, USC; Owamagbe Odhigizuwa, EDGE, UCLA; Carl Davis, DT, Iowa; Henry Anderson, DE/DT, Stanford

Round 2, Pick 44
Devin Smith, WR, Ohio State

I think Smith’s elite deep game is going to offer the Saints offense a major factor it lacks after the Kenny Stills trade. I think Smith can be even better than Stills as a deep threat; I also think he’ll develop into a well-rounded-enough receiver to justify the pick here. If he’s gone, Sammie Coates and Phillip Dorsett offer alternatives.

Possible Alternatives: Stephone Anthony, LB, Clemson; Ronald Darby, CB, Florida State; Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest; Eli Harold, EDGE, Virginia; Maxx Williams, TE, Minnesota

Round 3, Pick 75
Ali Marpet, G, Hobart

“Athletic small-school lineman” is a prototype that’s worked well for the Saints in the past: Bloomsburg’s Jahri Evans and Arkansas-Pine Bluff’s Terron Armstead currently anchor down crucial positions on the offensive line. Marpet could slide right in to replace the departed Ben Grubbs.

Round 3, Pick 78
Paul Dawson, LB, TCU

An instinctive playmaker on film who isn’t as fast or fluid as you’d like, Dawson slipped down some boards after poor speed times at the Combine. He’d likely be available here, where he’d represent good value.

Possible Alternatives (Picks 75 and 78): Tre McBride, WR, William and Mary; Rashad Greene, WR, Florida State; Grady Jarrett, DT, Clemson; Tre Jackson, G, Florida State; Laken Tomlinson, G, Duke; Dayrl Williams, OT, Oklahoma; Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, CB/S, Oregon; Eric Rowe, CB/S, Utah; Clive Walford, TE, Miami-FL

Round 5, Pick 148
Kenny Bell, WR, Nebraska

A Matt Waldman favorite, Bell compares in many ways to the Saints’ departed 2013 fifth-rounder, Kenny Stills. Similarly, Bell could start off in a limited role in year one before expanding to be a bigger part of the offense. (I’m assuming Marques Colston and Nick Toon don’t stay on the roster past 2015, and the jury is out on late-season pickup Jalen Saunders.)

Round 5, Pick 154
Derrick Lott, DT, Tennessee-Chattanooga

Lott is one of my favorite small-school prospects in this draft, a defensive tackle who crushes film and whose combine measurements stack up to that performance. (A 7.30 three-cone time at 314 pounds is crazy!) The middle of the Saints’ defense has been questionable, despite the resources spent on Akiem Hicks, John Jenkins, and Broderick Bunkley. Lott adds a player who can be an aggressive part of a rotation early on until he’s ready for a bigger role.

In addition to these two players, the Saints may strongly consider a candidate for slot cornerback– Lorenzo Doss, Quandre Diggs, Senquez Golson, Bobby McCain, or Bryce Callahan are all viable options.

Round 6, Pick 186
Josh Robinson, RB, Mississippi State

The Bowling Ball Bulldog has been seriously underrated nationally– I have him as a high fourth-rounder; I project him in the sixth here because that’s closer to where most rankings have him. If the Saints are looking for a thumping clock-killer who breaks every tackle possible, Robinson is a guy who could make moving on from Mark Ingram and Khiry Robinson very easy.

Round 7, Pick 230
Alani Fua, LB, BYU

A linebacker whose versatility will be a selling point for Rob Ryan, and whose agility and athleticism will probably allow him to be a valuable special-teams contributor right away.

The Human Torch: Devin Smith

If you haven’t watched any tape of Ohio State wide receiver Devin Smith, then you’re in for a treat. He’s preternaturally gifted when it comes to making catches deep down field. In fact, that’s essentially all he does. He only caught 33 passes as a senior, 12 of which were touchdowns, for an average of 28.2 yards per reception. These numbers are meaningless without context. That’s what the game tape is for, and thanks to Draft Breakdown I’ve been able to watch four of them (Michigan State, Wisconsin, Illinois, Cincinnati).

In the game against Michigan State, Smith makes two beautiful over-the-shoulder catches. On the first play, he starts off standing on the 35-yard line, runs more or less straight down the field, and makes a rather ridiculous reception around at the 20-yard line. I’ll leave the math to you. That’s a big chunk of yards. The most impressive aspect of this play isn’t the speed, but the way he locates  the ball midair and plucks it with both hands over his shoulder at an awkward angle. Later in the game he makes this catch for a touchdown. Just another routine over-the-shoulder 45-yard reception. I feel bad for the Michigan State safeties there. That is a touchdown presnap as long as the ball is on target.

You ain’t seen nothin’ yet. Wisconsin fans might want to skip this next section.

• Touchdown #1 is all about the adjustment to the ball. He locates it in the air when he turns his head, then he gets his body where it needs to be in order to make the catch. He also plays it like a basketball player boxing out his opponent to snare a rebound.
• Touchdown #2 is similar to his touchdown in the Michigan State game. This time he gets one-on-one coverage from the slot against a safety. Lamb to the slaughter.
• Touchdown #3 is a leaping two-handed grab. Smith’s location, location, location abilities are otherworldly. He didn’t drop a single deep bomb in any of the games I watched.

Alright, so he can catch deep bombs. Can we move on? If this is what you are asking, get the hell out of here. Two more. First, this play against Illinois. This guy Devin Smith sure can make deep over-the-shoulder touchdown catches. To prove he is, in fact, human, watch this play. He… almost didn’t catch it! Throwing the ball in the general direction of Smith and letting him do the rest is a foolproof plan I’m tellin’ ya.

He can do a bit other than run deep routes. Not a lot, mind you, but I have some evidence that he can. For instance, there’s this play where he finds the right spot to sit against zone coverage and runs in for a touchdown. Here he makes a catch over the middle on what appears to be a post route. On this play he just comes to a screeching halt. Even though the quarterback is looking the other way, you still need to try to get open if the play breaks down. And, at least to me, both this and this are poorly run routes.

In order to stay on the field (or become elite), Smith must get better at running short to intermediate routes. He will come in on multiple receiver packages and force the defense to respect his deep game, which opens up space for teammates. His deep game is special even among NFL players. He knows how to locate, and, more importantly, to adjust his body in order to make difficult catches with the ball flying 40+ yards. Over and over again.

If you’re going to be a one-trick pony as a rookie wide receiver, this is the best trick to have up your sleeve. Smith has excellent hands. In the four games I watched, he dropped one pass, and the degree of difficulty on his catches were very high indeed. At the end of the first round, I wouldn’t hesitate to send in his name if I needed some help outside. Are you telling me you don’t want to see Devin Smith catch bombs from Andrew Luck, or Russell Wilson, over the next five or more years? Please.

The 2015 “No One’s Mocking” Mock

Reading through some of the Zone Reads archives, I discovered a mock draft from 2013 I made with the sole goal of identifying picks no one else was projecting for a team. I thought about that and decided it was a neat intellectual exercise– if you kept to two rules:

1. The picks have to be a good, justifiable fit. You can’t have Jacksonville taking Jameis Winston #3 a year after taking Blake Bortles #3. Stuff like that. Picks that would genuinely benefit a team, but that no one else has projected.
2. The picks have to be good value. Jacksonville needs a free safety after missing out on Devin McCourty in free agency, but that doesn’t mean you can draft Gerod Holliman or Cody Prewitt #3 overall.

I enjoyed thinking about the picks and I hope you enjoy reading about them. Onward:

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
La’el Collins, OT, LSU

The Bucs’ offensive line flatly sucks. They signed Anthony Collins to a big free-agent deal last offseason to play left tackle, and he was such a disaster they cut him this offseason. Replace one Collins with another: Some folks have concern about La’el’s ability to play left tackle in the NFL, but he’s immediately the best offensive lineman on the team. (And despite where others slot him, he’s my #4 overall prospect, so I don’t consider this a reach for our purposes.)

2. Tennessee Titans
Vic Beasley, OLB, Clemson

He’s arguably the biggest-impact EDGE prospect and he is a natural fit as an OLB in a classic 3-4. Good marriage of need and value.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars
Kevin White, WR, West Virginia

I know they drafted two receivers in the second round last year (and uncovered an undrafted gem in Allen Hurns). I know they just signed Julius Thomas. I know there’s even hope Justin Blackmon could be reinstated. But I don’t think any of those guys (except Blackmon, and his off-field issues are too likely to get in the way) can be a true #1 the way White can. The Jaguars continue to build around Blake Bortles; if he fails, you can’t say they didn’t support him.

4. Oakland Raiders
Dante Fowler Jr., EDGE, Florida

Fowler gives them another edge player to pair with Khalil Mack. Fowler doesn’t have the elite bend around the corner you’d like to see, but he’s strong, fast, and does everything else well. Most likely alignment for Oakland is to continue at a 4-3 with Mack at LB and Fowler at DE, but you can do a lot of creative aligning with those two guys.

5. Washington Potatoes
Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State

I think the Robert Griffin era is probably over in Washington. (I do think his career can be salvaged, but now his career arc looks more like a Randall Cunningham, having to find redemption as a passer at his next stop.) Jay Gruden wants to do the West Coast Offense thing his way, and Winston is a highly accurate short-to-intermediate passer, among other things.

6. New York Jets
Randy Gregory, EDGE, Nebraska

Most mocks have the Jets taking an offensive player here. But QB/WR are too commonly mocked to the Jets, and they aren’t immediate needs now with the recent additions of Brandon Marshall and Ryan Fitzpatrick (okay, QB is still a need, but that doesn’t mean they’ll draft one). Quentin Coples has been disappointing on the edge, and the Jets need a player who can take advantage of the interior disruption Sheldon Richardson and Muhammad Wilkerson cause.

7. Chicago Bears
Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon

The new regime isn’t committed to Jay Cutler. He will start in 2015, though, as Mariota needs at least a year to get up to NFL speed. The Bears are bereft of talent in a lot of ways thanks to some draft misses by Phil Emery and (especially) Jerry Angelo, so they might as well start building for the future.

8. Atlanta Falcons
Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama

Roddy White is 33. Harry Douglas just left for Tennessee. Jacob Tamme is the closest thing they have to a tight end. This receiver crew is one All-World player, a good veteran in decline, and… ??? Cooper answers one of those question marks emphatically.

9. New York Giants
DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville

“But the Giants are old-school! They build from the trenches!” Sure they do, that’s why they drafted Odell Beckham last year. Rueben Randle just isn’t getting it done as a big outside threat; Parker would fill that role nicely, and also provide the crew some insurance talent-wise in case Victor Cruz can’t return to his old form. Their goal here should be to extend the window they can compete with Eli Manning as their QB.

10. St. Louis Rams
Marcus Peters, CB, Washington

Jeff Fisher never met a character concern he didn’t like. Peters is the best cornerback in the draft. Janoris Jenkins had a promising rookie year, but has been inconsistent since then. E.J. Gaines also had a promising rookie year, but he’s a sixth-round pick and would look even better in the nickel role. Some playmaking talent on the back end will help the team make the most of their devastating pass rush.

11. Minnesota Vikings
Leonard Williams, DT/DE, USC

It’s not as crazy a fall as it seems: Some draft types have grumbled about Williams’ lack of explosiveness (what makes him impressive is his ability to command double- and even triple-teams despite that). Minnesota has a lot of talent on the edge but could use some up the middle– and what better player to take than another Williams?

12. Cleveland Browns
Landon Collins, S, Alabama

The only safety I could name on their roster was Donte Whitner, and he’s pretty old. I almost mocked another cornerback, but you gotta figure they believe Justin Gilbert will get his head on straight. Adding the guy who is well ahead of most players at his position on the board is… a good start (I think this is a little high for Collins, but I also think he could easily go here).
(edited to add: Okay, as of right now Tashaun Gipson isn’t technically on the roster until he signs his RFA tender, but I still should have mentioned him. He’s a back-end ballhawk type, though, and Collins will fit in nicely at strong safety next to him.)

13. New Orleans Saints
Danny Shelton, NT, Washington

One of the recurring problems in the Saints’ defense over the last few years is a complete inability to stop the run. Broderick Bunkley is their only capable run-stuffer, and he’s 31 and can’t play forever. Shelton would enable the team to both run more traditional 3-4 looks and actually stop offenses on early downs.

14. Miami Dolphins
Eric Kendricks, LB, UCLA

Miami’s game of Linebacker Roulette last offseason didn’t really work out, as both Phillip Wheeler and Dannell Ellerbee are now gone. Kendricks is by some accounts the best linebacker in the draft and a true three-down player. The Dolphins now arguably have the best front four in the league: Let’s give them a true playmaker to take advantage.

15. San Francisco 49ers
Alvin “Bud” Dupree, EDGE, Kentucky

Obviously inside linebacker has become more of a concern, with Navorro Bowman’s status still uncertain, and the unexpected retirements of Patrick Willis and Chris Borland. But Aldon Smith is still a risk to be suspended at any time, and he’s really their only trascendent pass-rushing talent. Dupree lined up on the other side makes a lot of sense.

16. Houston Texans
Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia

Arian Foster is 29, which is about 72 in running back years. Their passing game is still nothing to write home about: If they were a band, they’d be called “DeAndre Hopkins and the Castoffs.” This is all part of Bill O’Brien’s plan to win by running 40 times a game until they find a real quarterback.

17. San Diego Chargers
Cameron Erving, C, Florida State

Nick Hardwick, who came into the league with Philip Rivers in 2004 and has been his starting center ever since, finally retired. Erving is projected as a plug-and-play center who could step right in without missing a beat.

18. Kansas City Chiefs
Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford

Offensive line is a need for Kansas City, but I haven’t seen Peat mocked anywhere. He’s more boom-or-bust than other OT prospects, as he more than anyone else in the draft has the feet and reach needed to play left tackle, but probably doesn’t have the kind of functional strength in the run game to succeed elsewhere. Anyway, I’m skeptical Eric Fisher can continue to play left tackle.

19. Cleveland Browns
Arik Armstead, DL, Oregon

Armstead is a raw athlete who would fit in as a 3-4 DE here and has the potential to be a wrecking crew if he develops. With the Kruger-Mingo pairing, the Browns don’t need edge guys so much as guys who can penetrate the interior and/or tie up blockers there.

20. Philadelphia Eagles
Jake Fisher, OT, Oregon

Fisher isn’t generally mocked this highly (and everyone has had the idea to mock Oregon players to Chip Kelly), but I saw Cian Fahey’s mock draft earlier this week that listed him at #13. I finally got started with film work on Fisher, and while I’m not so sure about his power, his athleticism and ability to get to the second level are astounding. Kelly loves athletic linemen– think Lane Johnson #4 overall– and Fisher would immediately fill one of the guard spots vacated by the released Todd Herremans or the rumored-to-be-shopped Evan Mathis, with the possibility that some day after Jason Peters is old and gone, Fisher and Johnson can form the bookend of the Eagles’ offensive line.

21. Cincinnati Bengals
Brandon Scherff, OT/G, Iowa

Scherff is a guy I have some questions about being able to play left tackle, but Cincinnati could use an upgrade anywhere on the line. Maybe he beats out the just-re-signed Clint Boling at guard. With rumors the Bengals will release Andre Smith flying, Scherff could start there right away. If he can play left tackle, Andrew Whitworth is 33 and probably won’t be able to much longer. Anyway, this is a good value pick for the talent and the Bengals like building that way even when the player they take doesn’t fill an immediate need.

22. Pittsburgh Steelers
Maxx Williams, TE, Minnesota

Heath Miller is a reliable red-zone target but he’s old. Antonio Brown is a true #1 do-it-all receiver, and Martavis Bryant is, I believe, going to grow into a tremendous outside player. Williams gives this team one thing they’re currently lacking on offense, a true seam-splitter.

23. Detroit Lions
Malcom Brown, DT, Texas

This one’s easy. Detroit lost Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley in free agency. Here is a replacement defensive tackle.

24. Arizona Cardinals
Jaelen Strong, WR, Arizona

Arizona would seem to be set at receiver, but Larry Fitzgerald turns 32 before the season starts, Michael Floyd had a disappointing second year, and John Brown is basically the exact opposite kind of receiver as Strong. I’m not saying Strong can replace Fitzgerald, but he’s a big target with sure hands who uses his size and leaping ability to win difficult, contested catches. Now if only the Cardinals had a quarterback.

25. Carolina Panthers
Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest

Every mock I’ve seen has the Panthers taking an offensive lineman or a wide receiver. Let’s not overlook that, hey, their secondary is crap, too. We haven’t finished up work on Johnson, but some voices I respect are calling him the best cornerback in the draft. I don’t know if I’d go that far, but the first round is eminently reasonable.

26. Baltimore Ravens
Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State

Baltimore tends to use those early picks on impact players at major schools. Waynes was arguably the best player on a great defense, and given Baltimore’s health problems at cornerback, he makes perfect sense. On the other hand, Baltimore now becomes the “Live by DPI, Die by DPI” team.

27. Dallas Cowboys
Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Missouri

Dorial Green-Beckham has substance abuse concerns. Dallas welcomed Josh Brent back with open arms.

Dorian Green-Beckham reportedly forced his way into a woman’s home and pushed her down a flight of stairs. Dallas just signed Greg Hardy.

I think Jerry Jones is going to remember what happened the last time he took a chance on a big-time receiver talent with character questions. (I also think he’s going to remember that that guy is due something like $15 million a year, very soon.)

28. Denver Broncos
Carl Davis, DT, Iowa

Davis is a prospect whose lack of buzz I don’t understand. He moves very well on the field, both horizontally and vertically; he has a full array of pass-rush moves, and he was frequently in the backfield disrupting plays at Iowa. He’s not quite the same kind of player as the departed Terrance Knighton, but he can add an interior pass rush; guys with Davis’ agility at his size are rare.

29. Indianapolis Colts
Shaq Thompson, LB, Washington

While it’s not fully clear where Thompson will play, he’s a hyper-athletic playmaker. The Colts could use him as ILB, an OLB, or even a safety on passing downs. The Colts need more playmakers on defense; now they have one more.

30. Green Bay Packers
Henry Anderson, DL, Stanford

An active, aggressive player up front who frequently disrupts plays. I’ve seen him all over the board on various draftnik rankings, but we like him and we think he could help the front seven, and even let B.J. Raji go back to playing a nose tackle.

31. New Orleans Saints (from Seattle)
Brett Hundley, QB, UCLA

I think this is the perfect landing spot for him. Sean Payton is not only the guy who recognized Drew Brees’ franchise talent when he was a free agent, he’s the guy who recognized Tony Romo’s talent at Eastern Illinois and groomed him into the QB he is today. Hundley has massive talent– enough to keep him a productive winner in 40 starts at UCLA despite iffy offensive support– but he lacks a lot of refinement in the finer points of the game. Here, he’d be on the Aaron Rodgers track: He can sit for at least a year– and more likely two or three– while he refines or even overhauls the parts of his game that need work. When Brees finally moseys on to Elysium, Hundley will be ready to take over, and the Second Payton Era will be underway.

32. New England Patriots
Jordan Phillips, DT, Oklahoma

This is a bit high for him, in my opinion, because Phillips is a little inconsistent– he’s athletic and flashes some disruptive ability, but too often plays high and is shut down by a single blocker. He’s still young, though, so there’s room to improve, and his size will allow him to start taking some of Vince Wilfork’s snaps.

Thoughts? Disagreements? Disappointments? What picks would you like to see that no one else is talking about?

Scouting Jameis Winston

With the combine behind us, it’s time to start taking a deep look at prospects. Quarterbacks always generate the most chatter, as they usually result in the biggest boom or bust outcomes. Everyone has an opinion on each specific individual, whether or not it is informed. This year, the highest profile quarterback is none other than Florida State’s Jameis Winston.

The Top 42 Prospects, Part 2

Whoa. The last column took long enough that I had to break it off after #23. On top of that, yesterday was a totally bonkers day in the NFL, as free agency officially opened and multiple big trades went down within minutes of one another.

I’ll write up my thoughts on those trades soon, but for now, here is the remainder of the first set of player rankings I promised:

Group V: Late 1st / Early 2nd

24. Carl Davis, DT, Iowa
The big man (315 pounds) has a surprisingly impressive combination of burst, moves, and ability to rush the passer upfield. Consistency is a concern, and I’ll have to see more film to decide what I think of him as an every-down player, but the potential for an interior disrupter here is high.

25. Brett Hundley, QB, UCLA
Hundley is one I’m really torn about. My guys like him. Draft Twitter is low on him. I’m not sure how to reconcile the seeming flaws / lack of development in his game, with the fact he managed to post pretty terrific, and steadily improving, numbers in three years as a starter, without much in the way of surrounding talent. 40 college starts with a 67% completion rate is hard to ignore when matched with the kind of arm and athletic talent Hundley has.

26. Henry Anderson, DT/DE, Stanford
Another one I haven’t done much work on, but what work I have done suggests a guy who can be a serious playmaker from the inside as well, at either a 3- or 5-technique. (Other draft experts rate him even higher than this.)

27. Eric Kendricks, LB, UCLA
A three-down playmaker whom certain draft analysts I respect are really high on. We haven’t gotten to much linebacker film yet; I’d like to know more before forming a precise opinion.

28. Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami-FL
I’m not so sold on Flowers’ ability to play left tackle; I don’t think he possesses the quickness for that. That said, he is very strong and engages well, generally shutting down rushers when he gets his hands on them. I think he could start at right tackle from day one.

29. Malcom Brown, DT, Texas
Don’t have much of an opinion on Brown yet but this is about right given the buzz I’m hearing. Athletic large men never fall too far.

30. Owamagbe Odighizuwa, EDGE, UCLA
Some injury history in his past, but wins with power and speed. Probably most suited as a 4-3 DE. vix wrote an article about him during the season.

31. Nelson Agholor, WR, USC
Agholor does everything well– tight routes, very good acceleration and speed, attacks the football well. Really surprised other sites have him as a round 2-3 guy. If he were 3 inches taller he’d be a top-10 pick.

32. Jalen Collins, CB, LSU
Love his athleticism, tons of size and speed. Technique still a little raw, but certainly meets the NFL requirements for the position.

33. Eddie Goldman, NT, Florida State
Another guy I haven’t had a chance to do much work on and I’ve seen all over the boards. I know someone who thinks he’s nothing special. I know someone else who mocked him in the top 5. He’s huge, and even the ability to occupy lots of blockers has value.

34. Michael Bennett, DT, Ohio State
Another aggressive disruptor in the middle. I have to watch more film on him– it’s possible opponents were overly focused on Joey Bosa– but at least one of our writers really likes him.

35. Paul Dawson, LB, TCU
Don’t let the Combine times fool you, Dawson is an aggressive, instinctive playmaker whose reaction speed makes up for a lack of track speed.

36. Maxx Williams, TE, Minnesota
Young and ridiculously athletic, Williams still has some refinement to undergo but the raw talent that’s there makes him the best tight end in this draft by far. You’ve probably seen this by now.

37. Sammie Coates, WR, Auburn
Coates’ upside is so high, but his hands are inconsistent. Ordinarily I hate receivers who can’t catch, but I don’t think Coates fits this bill, as he has made a number of difficult, contested catches that suggest the ability to become more consistent is there. With some work on his form, he could become a real terror.

38. Devin Smith, WR, Ohio State
As far as we can tell, Smith only does one thing– run vertical routes– but he does it extremely well, with serious football speed and ability to get open, and perhaps even more importantly, he’s got terrific ability to track the ball in the air and fight for it at the catch point.
He could be a top-20 pick if he were a more well-rounded receiver. But just what he can add as a reliable deep threat is enough to rank him here.

39. Devin Funchess, WR/TE, Michigan
“Tight end” designation is almost a formality at this point. Honestly, Funchess’ ranking involves a lot of projection: He’s young and has fantastic size. His Combine was a little disappointing, though, and he needs a lot of work. I haven’t done enough film study on him to be confident in my evaluation yet.

40. Cameron Erving, C, Florida State
We didn’t like his offensive tackle film at all, but he may well be the best center in the draft.

41. Stephone Anthony, LB, Clemson
Another guy who’s risen up most draft boards because his Combine numbers made people go look at his film again. Anthony first jumped out to us while watching Vic Beasley’s tape, and studying him closer confirms his playmaking ability and the athleticism he displayed at the Combine as legit.

42. D.J. Humphries, OT, Florida
Humphries is young, having just turned 21 in December, and I believe most talk about him as a first-round pick factors in the idea that he has a lot of growth ahead of him. Now, there’s some reason to suspect that’s true: He went from a playing weight of 284 during the season to 307 at the Combine without any seeming loss of agility. I believe ranking him higher than this requires projecting physical growth, and while I was willing to do that to a certain point, I couldn’t combine my projections for him with his film work to rate him a first-rounder. Still a quality prospect worth taking a chance on, though.

Well, that’s where we are for now. We still have a long way to go, so we’re going back to the film room for a little while.

First round of evaluations: Top 42 Prospects

We’re still relatively early in our film-watching process, two months before the draft, but between our work and what we read by other terrific experts in the field (if you want a list, this is a pretty good start), I felt it was time to stoke the fires of reader interest a bit by publishing a rankings list.

Two things about our rankings:

1)If you don’t see a player you like, chances are we simply haven’t watched enough of him to be confident in assigning a grade. In fact, I’m not fully confident in all of these grades, but it’s a solid reflection of who we feel is at the top of the draft right now, based on our current research. (I even thought about assigning each ranking a confidence grade, but that turned out to be more work than I cared for.)

2)The “tiers” I rank players by tend to vary year to year, except at the very top. What I generally mean is that players within a tier are roughly equal overall or close to it; I change tiers when I perceive a drop in quality. So, for example, if I thought there were measurable drops at, say, 25 and 40, that tier would be “Late 1st / Early 2nd.” But if the drops were at 20 and 30, I would call it “Late 1st,” even though the prospects might have the same grade as the other tier. (In this way, the tiers are in part a reflection of the level of talent in a given draft.)

If you’re a quick study, you may have surmised from this paragraph that the reason the list stops at 42 is because that’s where a tier breaks off. You’d be right! Without further ado, the list…

Group 0: Elite Prospects

Last year we had a grouping of “Elite” prospects. Elite prospects are the kinds whose gifts are rare and don’t come around every year, sometimes even less frequently than that. Last year had Jadeveon Clowney and Teddy Bridgewater (and, arguably, Khalil Mack and Sammy Watkins, who were both graded top-5 picks in the end by us). This draft has no one that transcendent, but it does have a lot of talent.

 

Group I: Top-5 Prospects

1. Leonard Williams, DT/DE, USC
While he may not have the top-line explosiveness NFL teams prefer, Williams moves very well for his size and is capable of being very disruptive regardless. Watch USC’s game against Cal to see what kind of a destructive, unblockable force he can be.

2. Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State
On-field evaluation only. I make no promises as to whether Winston can stay out of legal trouble (or avoid doing awful things off the field, even if he isn’t held legally accountable for them).

Winston is not a perfect prospect by any means, in particular plagued by spurts of incomprehensible decision-making. But he is still a very good QB prospect. Eli Manning is the most common comparison I’ve heard, and it makes sense: Like Manning, Winston combines the talent for the game and the cool head under pressure (Winston’s numbers suggest he actually improves as the game goes on) with the occasional baffling decision that results in an easily-avoided turnover. Eli Manning isn’t an elite talent, but he’s a guy who’s played QB at a roughly Pro Bowl level for 10 years; if you can get that #1 overall, you take it and you’re happy with it.

The mental game of quarterbacking is huge, and to me, Winston seems like a natural fit with strong instincts in that regard. Most of his mistakes are borne from him trying to do too much rather than not being able to do enough; you’re taking a bit of a chance on his decision-making process improving, but that’s true of every QB prospect, and it’s also true that the best QB prospects do improve with time in that regard. (Peyton Manning, after all, threw 28 interceptions as a rookie.)

3. Kevin White, WR, West Virginia
I love White’s game. I’m a sucker for big, strong receivers with sure hands who can win contested catches. (I really enjoyed watching Marc Trestman’s Chicago Bears for that reason– Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery are two of the best at that.) I already had White over Amari Cooper before the Combine, but it was close; when White ran a sub-4.4 40 (and Cooper didn’t) that sealed it for me. If White has the speed to match his ball skills, strength, and size, he could develop into an All-Pro player.

 

Group II: Top-10 Prospects

4. La’el Collins, OT, LSU
I think he’s the most complete tackle in this draft and he can play left tackle at the next level. Great power in the run game, finishes his blocks well. Not a guy who looks like the smoothest or quickest in pass protection– but somehow, he just always manages to stonewall his man. (And I do believe he’s quick enough for the next level.)

5. Dante Fowler Jr., EDGE, Florida
Fowler is one of the most well-rounded edge prospects in this draft; he can win with speed around the edge, strength, and a wide range of moves. He’s versatile, capable of lining up all over the formation, and flashes a few “wow” moments on film where he looks like the best player by a good margin. Not great against the run, but that’s a minor point with all he does so well.

I’ve heard talk that Fowler has a low ceiling, but he’s a very young prospect– he won’t even turn 21 until the preseason– and that leads me to believe he still has room to grow. Perhaps he already has his complete array of moves, but it’s possible he gets a little bigger, stronger, or faster as well, and that could make a real difference.

6. Vic Beasley, EDGE, Clemson
Beasley’s 2013 film had us ranking him as a late 1st prospect at best. A wise decision to return to school: Beasley’s tape is not perfect, but the best parts show a dominant burst and natural bend around the corner, easily the best of anyone in this class. He has great awareness as well, often sticking with a play to finish it or chase it down from behind.

The biggest question with Beasley is whether or not the added weight and strength he displayed at the Combine will translate on the field. Has he added functional power? Can he add weight without losing his burst? His Combine numbers seem to say “Yes,” but until we see how it translates on the field, it’s still a question. He still ranks this high because even if the added weight hinders him, he can drop it and get back to being nasty.

7. Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
Mariota is a a project. He’s got a ton of talent and a great work ethic, but he also hasn’t been asked to do a number of things he’ll have to do to succeed in the NFL. His ceiling could potentially be higher than Winston’s if he learns to do those things, but it’s also possible he ends up being a more talented Alex Smith– which isn’t necessarily a bad player, one you can win with if you have a solid defense and a coach who will tailor the offense to his skills, but when you take a QB high you hope for him to transcend the system, rather than require a system.

 

Group III: Top half of 1st

8. Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
My biggest concern with Cooper going into 2014 was his hands, and he seems to have significantly improved in that regard. He does everything well but doesn’t dominate in any one area, which is why I have concerns that he may have a lower ceiling than I’d want from a prospect I drafted this highly. Still, it’s hard to imagine him completely failing.

9. Randy Gregory, EDGE, Nebraska
Gregory’s been highly ranked by most draft outlets, but buyer beware, as this is in large part projection. Gregory has the kind of length and build that could make for a natural rusher around the edge– he tested well at the Combine in terms of speed numbers, too– but he’s still rather light, still needs to learn a fuller array of moves, and wasn’t nearly as productive a pass rusher in college as you’d like to see from a great prospect. He’s athletic and holds up well in the run game, which makes him unlikely to be a bust, but he has a lot to learn to match the ceiling that had others rating him as the top edge prospect.

10. Alvin “Bud” Dupree, EDGE, Kentucky
Dupree is a bit of a project as well, but I already see more from him, both in terms of the tape overall and in growth. (Dupree’s tape later in the season is significantly better than early in the season, an encouraging sign when projecting a prospect’s development.) He’s a shade below the athlete Fowler is, and may not quite have his natural bend or moves, but he’s still strong, he still has very good functional speed (both in burst and in closing), and a high motor. Kentucky used him in coverage more than I thought they should, but I think he can be a wrecking ball in the front seven.

11. DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville
There’s a lot to like about Parker: He’s got great size and hands, he’s fast, he goes up for the ball well. Occasionally he doesn’t use his size to the best of his ability, and that’s part of the concern with him, along with a series of injuries in college. Not quite as good as Kevin White, but still clearly a top-three receiver in this class.

12. Shane Ray, EDGE, Missouri
Ray didn’t work out at the Combine, so many sites have moved him even lower than this until his Pro Day. I didn’t want to overreact yet, but this data will be important to projecting his standing among the other edge rushers. Ray has good burst, good closing/chasing speed, but he’s not quite as fast or fluid as Beasley, and I’m not sure yet about how many different ways he can “win” on a pass rush.

 

Group IV: Bottom Half of 1st

13. Danny Shelton, NT, Washington
Shelton played a ton of snaps for Washington last year, and part of the reason teams are projecting him highly is because he can be dominant in a reduced workload. At the same time, that’s why I have him in this group and not the one above it, because I drop him down for not being at his best as an every-down player.

14. Marcus Peters, CB, Washington
Peters certainly has the best tape of any cornerback in this class. As the character concerns surrounding him increasingly seem to be overblown and not a serious issue, the tape comes to the forefront. He didn’t run as fast as Trae Waynes, but the tape still tells the difference. Peters is a true press-man corner with great ball skills and instincts, and is a sure tackler to boot (well, for a cornerback, at least).

15. Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford
Peat has the best “left tackle body” of anyone in the draft. He’s got length, he’s got the build for the position, and he’s got very quick feet capable of big strides– he can get into his pass set faster, and further back, than anyone else in this draft. The problem is what happens once he’s there: He’s still very inconsistent with his form, with his punch, with staying engaged with blocks. The raw material is too tempting, though, especially as he does show the ability to dominate at times– it’s not a complete projection.

16. Jaelen Strong, WR, Arizona State
I’ve seen other evaluators have concerns about Strong, and I need to take a more full look at his tape, but what I see from him is the stuff that I really like in a receiver and that I think will translate at the next level– great size and leaping ability, terrific hands, attacks the catch point well. His game needs refining, but he does the most important things well already.

17. Shaq Thompson, LB, Washington
It’s not entirely clear where Thompson will play on the field– part linebacker, part safety, he’s a player with tremendous speed and instincts but who doesn’t fit into a typical box. A creative defensive coach who knows how to get the most out of unconventional talent will love him.

18. Landon Collins, SS, Alabama
Collins is a versatile all-around safety and the clear best prospect in this draft at the position. Sorry I don’t have much to add beyond that.

19. Cedric Ogbuehi, OT, Texas A&M
Ogbuehi tore his ACL at the Liberty Bowl, but even if he’s not ready in time for the season, he’s another natural left tackle who should be able to play at a high level. He’d be higher if he hadn’t injured his knee, but he’s expected to make a full and clean recovery, and long-term, he’s still worthy of a first-round pick.

20. Brandon Scherff, OT/G, Iowa
Scherff is lowest of this bunch because I have the most concerns about him being able to play outside at the next level. He could be a terrific guard, but I still prioritize the length and athleticism needed to play NFL tackle first.

21. Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State
Blazing speed is a huge asset for this former track star.  Biggest concern is that his physical style of play might not translate well to the NFL; in other words, he might get flagged for DPI, a lot.

22. Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Missouri / Oklahoma
DGB is crazy talented, but his off-field concerns are going to scare a lot of teams. Marijuana arrests may not be a big deal, but a domestic altercation with a woman is going to have teams thinking hard, especially given the NFL’s increased focus on domestic violence. The fact that he hasn’t been on the field in a year will give teams pause, as well. One guy who could have top-five talent when it’s all said and done, but has so many risks surrounding him right now that it’s difficult to rate him that highly. This seems about right based on talent; not playing a year definitely affects his stock.

23. Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia
Speaking of a player who should have gone top-5: Instead, the NCAA’s odious “amateurism” rules suspended him for four games, and he promptly tore an ACL upon return (one wonders if that would have happened had Gurley been allowed to play for the previous month). He’s expected to recover fully, though, and Gurley provides a devastating combination of obvious size and power with a quickness and balance you’d hope to find in a running back 30 pounds lighter, not to mention his vision and patience.

 

OK. I lied about going to 42 today. I’m already at 2500 words. I need a break, but I’ll come back later and post Group V.

 

“F— It, I’m Going Deep” (Sleeper Series): Brandon Bridge

Hello once again, fellow draft devotees and combine connoisseurs. I speak to you today to preach the word of Brandon Bridge. He comes from a land where pines and maples grow, great prairies spread, and Lordly rivers flow. That’s right: Mobile, Alabama, where sits the University of South Alabama, playing football in the Sun Belt conference. And he’s come to save your franchise from years of quarterback misery (results may vary). The tale of the tape reads as 6’4″, 229 lbs., with 34 1/4 inches of flame-throwing arm power.

Bridge does not inspire much confidence statistically. He completed a paltry 52% of his passes, and only threw 15 touchdowns to 8 interceptions. Not exactly folkloric numbers, but I’ve seen two of his 2014 tapes, and the kinds of throws he can make will leave your head spinning. One game is against Appalachian State via Draft Breakdown, and I found another on the YouTube channel ‘CollegeFBDude‘ against Mississippi State. Thanks to both for uploading.

 

Appalachian State

The first play I want to show displays a number of positive attributes in my book. Bridge sees the blitz, but trusts his protection. His eyes scan from left to right as he drops back and climbs the pocket. There’s no wasted motion in his throw. The ball hits his receiver in stride. Then on the very next play, he throws the ball over his intended receivers head. Don’t ask me. He ends that drive with a nice rushing touchdown.

Overall, he uses the pocket well. Here you see him using every last second of his time, and all of the space possible, to stay in the pocket and find a receiver. This is not his first read (it might be his third). Watch his eyes.

Guess what happens next. If you answered “a touchdown strike to the running back on a wheel route,” then congratulations on being wrong. That almost happens. It *should* be the result. Alas, Bridge rushes the throw under no pressure and misses an easy touchdown.

Not everyone can roll to their left with a defender on pursuit, square up, and fire a strike to a receiver. It looks easy for Bridge. He has functional mobility in both directions. Now look at this play. He sells the pump fake to the bubble screen man – the corner bites hard,leaving him completely flat footed. Bang! Bridge hits his receiver in stride, again. Notice how he slides ever so slightly in the pocket before releasing that one. I really like how he can move in the pocket.

Bridge can throw a great deep ball. He releases the ball on the far left hash of the 26 yard line, and it hits the receiver in stride along the right sideline at the 22 yard line. That’s impossible. Seriously, what?  Of course, the difference between that pass and this pass is the amount of pressure he’s under. He can’t get it done in the face of true pressure. Except, well, yes he can. With a free rusher bearing right down on him, Bridge makes a picture perfect toss deep down the sideline for a touchdown. It is actually impossible to put the ball in a better location.

“OH. MY. GOD.” Jaw meet floor. Words cannot describe my reaction when I saw Bridge break multiple would-be tacklers and impossibly make that touchdown throw while on the run. Without any hyperbole, that is one of the greatest plays I’ve ever seen. Yeah… next game.

 

Mississippi State

If you didn’t follow college football last year, Mississippi State was ranked #1 in the polls for several weeks. That’s the level of competition Brandon Bridge is facing on this tape. The first play of note is this beauty deep down the middle, behind the defense, right into the hands of the receiver. In and out of the receivers hands, that is.

On this play, Bridge probably needs to take the brief running lane and pick up however many yards he can on the ground instead of pulling the ball back and attempting to escape around the left side. Most likely, he ends up near the line of scrimmage. In trying to make a heroic play on 1st down, the ball ends up on the ground. Live to fight another down.

Here is an important 3rd down where Bridge simply makes a poor decision. He’s about to get sacked on his blind side, and, well, he just dares the defender to intercept this ball. It’s a spot where a field goal is likely difficult for a college kicker. I’m not certain what he should do here without seeing the all-22 camera angle, but this isn’t the answer.

I really want you to see this play. It looks like the ball is bending into the receiver who is breaking right off the top of his stem. Bridge keeps hitting players at full speed with perfect ball placement in these two games. No one man should have all this power (watch that throwing-across-your-body thing though). How the heck did he only complete 52% of his passes? Someone out there upload more games.

About that interception he nearly threw earlier, this time the corner does make the catch. Also, this is a much worse decision. It isn’t 3rd down. He isn’t under pressure. His receiver is double covered. There’s no deception by the defense or anything. Of all the throws in both games, this is the worst. I can make some excuse for the other mistakes. Not this one.

After making such a boneheaded throw, I’m glad to see him rebound here. It’s a similar throw – and result, unfortunately – to the first play I showcased. Bridge can sure rip some deep balls. If only his receivers could catch them. His accuracy down field is very impressive, which I can’t say about a prospect like Bryce Petty in this 2015 class.

So we return to Mr. Bridge’s poor decision making with this throw. That comes stamped with postage saying “return to sender.” If you’ve figured this guy out yet, you already know that his very next throw is right where it needs to be. On the ground, because his receivers cannot catch (duh).

There are a few notable plays in the rest of the game. On the bad side, he doesn’t see the underneath defender here, and almost throws another interception. I’ll leave off with a rather funny play. Bouncy! In all seriousness, he shows some nice elusiveness there.

 

THE WRAP

Consistency is king in the NFL. Bridge is not consistent. We’re looking at a developmental prospect. I see one with huge upside. I omitted a few plays where he manages to escape the pocket to scramble for positive yards. He does possess that dimension to his game, when necessary. I’m dying to find more tape on Brandon Bridge. His arm talent is rare even among NFL starters.

A good comparison from last year might be Logan Thomas, who is currently being mentored under Bruce Arians in Arizona. I think Bridge flashes NFL talent more consistently, and those flashes of talent are at a higher level (Thomas was much more frustrating to watch). Thomas got picked in the 4th round last year. All it takes is one team to fall for Bridge as much as I did for him to go in a similar spot. This class is really poor with quarterback prospects after Mariota, Winston, and Hundley. I’m laughing at any team that takes any of the senior bowl guys ahead of Bridge.

Our first (wildly inaccurate and ill-informed) Mock Draft, Part 2

Click here for part 1.

Rounds 2 and 3 won’t have as much detail, because, good Lord, I’m not trying to write a 7,500-word column. I’ll try to include a brief explanation of each pick, though.

ROUND 2

33. Tennessee Titans – Jalen Collins, CB, LSU
    Still need DB help, and Collins is a tremendous athlete with first-round potential.
34. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Cameron Erving, C, Florida State
    Tampa’s offensive line flatly sucks. This is in part because they never use high picks on linemen. What better way to fix that problem, and to aid Jameis Winston’s transition to the NFL, than by drafting his center?
35. Oakland Raiders – Paul Dawson, LB, TCU
    Some character-concerns (which make him a natural-born Raider) but Dawson is a great playmaker, and he and Khalil Mack will amplify each other’s abilities.
36. Jacksonville Jaguars – Maxx Williams, TE, Minnesota
    Marcedes Lewis has been with the team since, seemingly, George Bush was in office (that is, George H.W. Bush), but even his time must come to an end soon. Williams is a fantastic athlete for the position who will give Blake Bortles another dynamic receiver and help build on the tremendous young crew Jacksonville found from last year’s rookies.
37. New York Jets – Owamagbe Odighizuwa, DE/OLB, UCLA
    The Jets have seemingly needed edge-rusher help for the entirety of the Rex Ryan era, and Odighizuwa is the kind of guy they could use, even if he’s more of a 4-3 DE.
38. Washington – Carl Davis, DT, Iowa
    More help in the trenches for a team that needs it. Davis crushed the Senior Bowl and displays terrific movement and pass-rush ability for his size.
39. Chicago Bears – Gerod Holliman, FS, Louisville
    Chicago’s safeties were terrible. Holliman (14 INT in 2014) is the kind of ball-hawk the Bears could use covering the back end.
40. New York Giants – T.J. Clemmings, OT, Pittsburgh
    The Giants seem to be perpetually in need of offensive line help, and Clemmings is popular among scouts for his athleticism (even though he had a poor Senior Bowl).
41. St. Louis Rams – Laken Tomlinson, G, Duke
    Even if Jake Long never plays another down for the Rams, they still have Greg Robinson at left tackle, and a hole at one guard position. Tomlinson is the best guard in the draft.
42. Atlanta Falcons – Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami-FL
    I have concerns about Flowers’ ability to play left tackle in the NFL, but I think he could fill in in a pinch, and more importantly can be a quite good right tackle. (Check out his film against Virginia, where he basically stonewalls Eli Harold.) Atlanta has their LT of the future, but they need a right tackle, with Sam Baker’s injury history making him unreliable for the future.
43. Cleveland Browns – Hau’oli Kikaha, DE/OLB, Washington
    For all the resources the Browns have spent on edge rushing, they haven’t gotten much production as a result. Kikaha falls because of his injury history, but his hand technique and athletic upside are up there with the best in this draft.
44. New Orleans Saints – Daryl Williams, OT, Oklahoma
    Zach Strief is a journeyman right tackle who basically ended up with the job because Charles Brown couldn’t hack it. Strief is better suited to playing the sixth man; Williams should start at RT right away.
45. Minnesota Vikings – Ty Sambrailo, OT, Colorado State
    Minnesota’s entire offensive line was a mess last year. Wherever Sambrailo slots in, he’ll be an upgrade.
46. San Francisco 49ers – P.J. Williams, CB, Florida State
    They don’t have much talent at this position. Now they have a little more.
47. Miami Dolphins – Eddie Goldman, DT, Florida State
    The big man offers some insurance in case they can’t keep one of their interior guys, and is a steal this late to boot.
48. San Diego Chargers – Arik Armstead, DE/DT, Oregon
    Raw but athletic, Armstead would slot right in at 3-4 DE for the Chargers and hopefully provide some push.
49. Kansas City Chiefs – Chris Hackett, S, TCU
    Sadly, Eric Berry’s lymphoma diagnosis leaves the Chiefs looking for a safety here. Hackett is a nice fit to replace Berry at strong safety.
50. Buffalo Bills – Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin
    Fred Jackson is nearing the end of the line. C.J. Spiller is a free agent. Gordon provides answers to both questions.
51. Houston Texans – Bernardick McKinney, LB, Mississippi State
    Brian Cushing hasn’t been able to stay healthy, and this is the film on Houston’s other ILB. McKinney fills a bad need on defense.
52. Philadelphia Eagles – Nate Orchard, DE/OLB, Utah
    Marcus Smith didn’t really work out last year. Connor Barwin probably won’t get 15 sacks next season. Trent Cole is nearing the end of the line. The Eagles give pass rushing another shot.
53. Cincinnati Bengals – Quinten Rollins, CB, Miami-OH
    Rollins has been a riser of late, and the Bengals are constantly reloading at this position.
54. Detroit Lions – Duke Johnson, RB, Miami-FL
    I think he’s one of the more complete backs in the draft, but the team also has Joique Bell on hand to spell Johnson and keep him from taking too many hits.
55. Arizona Cardinals – Danielle Hunter, DE/OLB, LSU
    Arizona can’t continue relying on John Abraham and Larry Foote, so LSU West gets another member.
56. Pittsburgh Steelers – A.J. Cann, G, South Carolina
    David DeCastro has been great at one guard spot, but the other is very much a question.
57. Carolina Panthers – Jake Fisher, OT, Oregon
    I have a hard time not seeing Carolina taking an OT in the first two rounds. Fisher’s athleticism has some talking of him as a first-round pick. Whichever tackle position he plays for Carolina, he’s an upgrade.
58. Baltimore Ravens – Ameer Abdullah, RB, Nebraska
    Justin Forsett likely isn’t coming back. Abdullah’s receiving ability gives him an immediate and important role in this backfield, with Lorenzo Taliaferro handling the grunt work.
59. Denver Broncos – Donovan Smith, OT, Penn State
    Denver needs to find a right tackle so they can move Louis Vasquez back to guard. Smith’s athleticism has some teams drooling, but he’s a project.
60. Dallas Cowboys – T.J. Yeldon, RB, Alabama
    Happy trails, DeMarco Murray.
61. Indianapolis Colts – David Cobb, RB, Minnesota
    Don’t let the door hit you in the ass while you stand around doing spin moves in the doorway, Trent Richardson.
62. Green Bay Packers – Alex Carter, CB, Stanford
    Green Bay’s always looking for more depth here.
63. Seattle Seahawks – Preston Smith, DT, Mississippi State
    An aggressive pass-rusher who can play multiple positions along a front: An ideal fit for the Seahawks.
64. New England Patriots – Sammie Coates, WR, Auburn
    Another attempt to add a big-play element to the Pats offense. Let’s hope Coates sorts out his hands well enough to stay out of Belichick’s doghouse.

ROUND 3

65. Tampa Bay Buccaneers –  Lorenzo Mauldin, DE/OLB, Louisville
    The Bucs have made a mess of their edge rushing, letting Michael Bennett go while overpaying the disappointing Michael Johnson and clinging to busts Adrian Clayborn and Da’Quan Bowers. Mauldin is another attempt to fix this problem.
66. Tennessee Titans – Tre Jackson, G, Florida State
    The Andy Levitre signing has not worked out.
67. Jacksonville Jaguars – Jeremiah Poutasi, OT, Utah
    Luke Joeckel and Brandon Linder (and maybe Luke Bowanko) are the only long-term parts of this OL, so this is another case of “Wherever he plays, it’s an upgrade.”
68. Oakland Raiders – Ronald Darby, CB, Florida State
    A steal here for a team that hasn’t gotten what it hoped out of D.J. Hayden and has little else at the position.
69. Washington – Denzel Perryman, LB, Miami-FL
    A playmaker at another position Washington needs them.
70. New York Jets – Tevin Coleman, RB, Indiana
    A speedy, big-play complement to Chris Ivory.
71. Chicago Bears – Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, CB, Oregon
    Coming back to school significantly hurt his stock, but he should still fit in at slot CB once he recovers from his injury.
72. St. Louis Rams – Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest
    E.J. Gaines outperformed his draft position, but Janoris Jenkins has been inconsistent since a promising rookie year, and the rest of the corners on roster are crap.
73. Atlanta Falcons – Jay Ayaji, RB, Boise State
    I look forward to watching an Ayaji-Devonta Freeman rotation on Sundays.
74. New York Giants – Markus Golden, DE/OLB, Missouri
    True to form, New York reloads their edge rushing with another day-two pick.
75. New Orleans Saints – Devin Smith, WR, Ohio State
    A steal here, especially for a team whose wide receiver crew has quietly become very suspect.
76. Minnesota Vikings – Mike Davis, RB, South Carolina
    Goodbye, Adrian Peterson. Davis and Jerick McKinnon will take it from here.
77. Cleveland Browns – Reese Dismukes, C, Auburn
    Alex Mack is probably gone after 2015, either because he exercises his opt-out or he fails to recover sufficiently from his injury. Either way, Cleveland needs to prepare for it.
78. Miami Dolphins – Rashad Greene, WR, Florida State
    Miami’s receiving crew needs more help than just Greene, but he’s a start.
79. San Francisco 49ers – Phillip Dorsett, WR, Miami-FL
    A true burner to take advantage of Kaep’s monster arm. Could line up opposite Anquan Boldin on opening day if the 49ers let Michael Crabtree walk.
80. Kansas City Chiefs – Jamison Crowder, WR, Duke
    The kind of speedy waterbug player Andy Reid loves. He will find a way to run a personnel grouping of Jamaal Charles / Knile Davis / De’Anthony Thomas / Travis Kelce / Crowder frequently in 2015.
81. Buffalo Bills – Arie Kouandijo, G, Alabama
    The interior line needs shoring up beyond Richie Incognito, and now the Kouandijo brothers are reunited.
82. Houston Texans – D.J. Humphries, OT, Florida
    An athletic project who could develop into a starting tackle. The team has some questions on the line, especially since #33 overall pick Xavier Su’a-Filo barely got on the field last year.
83. San Diego Chargers – Jacoby Glenn, CB, UCF
    They still need cornerback help beyond Jason Verrett, especially since he’s more suited to playing inside.
84. Philadelphia Eagles – Cody Prewitt, FS, Ole Miss
    Pretty self-explanatory.
85. Cincinnati Bengals – Nick O’Leary, TE, Florida State
    Jermaine Gresham is a free agent, and he’s probably gone. O’Leary should fill his role well.
86. Arizona Cardinals – Hroniss Grasu, C, Oregon
    They need some upgrades on their line and could move on from Lyle Sendlein soon.
87. Pittsburgh Steelers – Trey Flowers, DE/OLB, Arkansas
    Their last few swings at finding edge rushing haven’t worked out as well as they hoped. Here’s another.
88. Detroit Lions – Breshad Perriman, WR, UCF
    The son of longtime Herman Moore second banana Brett Perriman walks into an ideal situation, as the third receiver for a team that badly needs one.
89. Carolina Panthers – Shaq Mason, G, Georgia Tech
    Between Fisher, Mason, and last year’s third-round pick, Trai Turner, Carolina’s offensive line has been significantly improved (if still one player short of legitimate).
90. Baltimore Ravens – D’Joun Smith, CB, Florida Atlantic
    Injury questions surround Baltimore’s most talented guys, so depth here always helps.
91. Dallas Cowboys – Jaquiski Tartt, S, Samford
    Dallas needs safety help, and I for one can see Jerry Jones saying “Hot damn! I love that name!”
92. Denver Broncos – Kevin White, CB, TCU
    Like the inverse of the Detroit pick, White walks into a scenario where the team has two strong cornerbacks already and he can slide in behind them.
93. Indianapolis Colts – Josh Harper, WR, Fresno State
    Reggie Wayne is at the end of the line and Hakeem Nicks didn’t work out. The Colts need more receiver depth than just T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief.
94. Green Bay Packers – Gabe Wright, DT, Auburn
    A big body to prepare them for the possible loss of B.J. Raji.
95. Seattle Seahawks – Josue Matias, G, Florida State
    Seattle’s offensive line is relatively weak outside of its top two players. This is an attempt to solve that problem.
96. New England Patriots – Clive Walford, TE, Miami-FL
    A second tight end with some athleticism and receiving skills who the Pats can use in the ways they hoped to use Aaron Hernandez.

Leave all complaints in comments.

Our first (wildly inaccurate and ill-informed) Mock Draft, Part 1

Mock Drafts are pointless and inaccurate. They’re also fun to write and fun to read. We’ve begun film work for this year’s draft, but we’re nowhere near forming complete opinions, and as we gather more information about prospects, discover some sleepers, and are able to access more and more film, some of these picks are going to look downright silly. But to reiterate: Mock drafts are fun to write and fun to read, and we like to have fun here.

As we’ve mostly focused on prominent, well-regarded prospects so far, I’m limiting this draft to three rounds, since we don’t know so much about the guys projected to go later. (Frankly, we don’t know much about some of the guys mocked in this draft. I won’t be surprised when some of our first-rounders go in the third round, and vice-versa.) Compensatory picks haven’t been handed out yet, which was another good reason to stop there, as only the first 96 picks are set in stone right now.

I did want to get one of these in before the Combine, as that event will separate some players who look similar on film but may measure differently. For now, enjoy three rounds of wild speculation!

Round 1

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State
   Our war room is still split on Winston vs. Mariota. I personally prefer Winston’s on-field game; I think it will translate to the NFL very well, and while Marcus Mariota is a talented athlete with a strong work ethic, I have some concerns about whether or not he can refine some of his decisions in the heat of the moment to the point I want to see in a quarterback.
2. Tennessee Titans – Leonard Williams, DE/DT, USC
   I don’t think the Titans will take a quarterback here, and Williams is head-and-shoulders the best non-QB in this draft. I could see the Titans doing something dumb, because they’re the Titans, but that’s not the point of this mock.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars – Randy Gregory, DE/OLB, Nebraska
   In reality, Jacksonville is probably best served trading down with someone who wants Mariota, but without that option here, they go with the guy perceived to have the highest upside as an edge rusher. His production wasn’t what you want from a premier prospect, but his athleticism, length, and skill using his hands leads teams to project a lot of growth from him.
4. Oakland Raiders – Kevin White, WR, West Virginia
   A bit of a surprise to some here, but we have White ranked over Amari Cooper. A sure all-around receiver who has invited comparisons to Larry Fitzgerald, White immediately becomes the Raiders’ best receiver and the top-flight guy Derek Carr needs to aid his development.
5. Washington Potatoes – La’el Collins, OT, Washington
   Washington needs help basically everywhere. Collins is our favorite tackle in this draft, a guy who exhibits tremendous power in the run game and enough quickness that we’re higher on his ability to play LT than most. Even if he can’t, Washington could use another stud offensive lineman; Trent Williams is really their only above-average player in the unit.
6. New York Jets – Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
   I could certainly see the Jets giving Geno Smith one more year, but I doubt Mariota falls further than this regardless. Smith’s wild inconsistency leads to this pick; OC Chan Gailey is the kind of creative thinker who will tailor his offense to his franchise QB, rather than the other way around.
7. Chicago Bears – Dante Fowler Jr., DE/OLB, Florida
   Chicago needs defensive help badly. Rumors are that new DC Vic Fangio is switching to a 3-4. I think Fowler’s best position is 3-4 OLB, and I like him slightly better than Shane Ray (stronger) and Bud Dupree (more athletic).
8. Atlanta Falcons – Shane Ray, DE/OLB, Missouri
   Atlanta needs defensive help badly. Last year’s switch to a 3-4 under then-DC Mike Nolan lacked the necessary parts to succeed. I have no idea if Dan Quinn and Richard Smith will keep the same system or switch to something more like the Seattle 4-3, but Ray is the kind of edge-rushing prospect they need either way.
9. New York Giants – DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville
   Another surprise. This comes from projecting a few things: One, that the Giants will make the decision to go all-in on the offense and maximize Eli Manning’s potential to carry them back to the playoffs. Two, the decision that Rueben Randle has been a disappointment leads them to replace him with a receiver of similar size.
   One could easily argue that the bigger worry is that Victor Cruz will never be the same again after his catastrophic injury, and Amari Cooper makes an ideal replacement for him. I won’t argue with you if you do; it’s Odell Beckham’s lack of size that led me to go with the bigger body as the tiebreaker.
10. St. Louis Rams – Landon Collins, SS, Alabama
    The secondary is almost certainly the weakest spot of St. Louis’ defense, and an all-around player like Collins would go a long way to fixing some of the weaknesses there. (I think this is a bit of a reach for him, but the talent pool gets pretty flat pretty soon, and I’ve seen him mocked as high as #5, so I’m not sweating it.)
11. Minnesota Vikings – Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
    Minnesota needs receiver help to aid Teddy Bridgewater along. Charles Johnson, Bad Cordarrelle Patterson, and Old Greg Jennings aren’t enough. Parker might arguably be the better fit as an outside receiver, but he’s gone. Cooper will offer tons of speed to stretch the field, and may even draw attention away from Patterson enough that he becomes a productive player again.
12. Cleveland Browns – Danny Shelton, NT, Washington
    Men of Shelton’s size and level of performance don’t come around very often. It’s arguable that he’s only a two-down player in the NFL, and this is a reach for any such player, but Shelton played all three downs in college, and Cleveland needs help in the defensive trenches, even if just to occupy blockers for their pass-rushing trio.
13. New Orleans Saints – DE/OLB Bud Dupree, Kentucky
    New Orleans needs a lot of help. Getting after the quarterback was one of their more obvious deficiencies last season, and is one of the only things that can cover up holes on the rest of the defense. Dupree is the best edge rusher left on the board by some margin, and I think he can be moved around and employed in enough different ways to please Rob Ryan.
14. Miami Dolphins – Shaq Thompson, OLB, Washington
    Miami spent lots of money on linebackers in free agency. That money was wasted. Thompson is a true playmaker who can take advantage of the opportunities afforded by Miami’s strong front four.
15. San Francisco 49ers – Henry Anderson, DE/DT, Stanford
    A bit of a surprise here, but Anderson is fantastic on film, and his combination of size and pass-rushing ability is very reminiscent of Justin Smith. Possibly a reach, but pass-rushing is always in vogue, and with San Francisco’s questions at outside linebacker (and no one really worth taking here), getting pass-rushing production from another position here makes sense.
16. Houston Texans – Brett Hundley, QB, UCLA
    Oh boy. This one’s gonna draw some controversy, as lots of scouts see Hundley as a second-rounder at best. But if you believe in a quarterback, you take him in round one. Despite Hundley’s flaws, he’s had very productive– and steadily improving– numbers in three years as a starter while having little to work with in terms of receiving help or offensive line. If Bill O’Brien can develop Matt McGloin from walk-on into actual NFL starter (for a very bad team, but still), Texans fans will have fun imagining what he can do with a talent like Hundley.
17. San Diego Chargers – Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford
    While the Chargers have gotten serviceable left tackle play out of King Dunlap, he is not the left tackle of the future, and even if he was, the Chargers have a hole at right tackle after moving D.J. Fluker inside. Peat’s technique is somewhat raw, but he has tremendous agility for his size: He’s by far the tackle prospect in this draft with the best “left tackle athleticism.”
18. Kansas City Chiefs – Brandon Scherff, OT/G, Iowa
    Unlike Peat, we have significant concerns about Scherff’s ability to play NFL left tackle. Fortunately for the Chiefs (well, so to speak), they need help everywhere on the line. Even if Scherff can’t supplant #1 overall disappointment Eric Fisher at left tackle, the Chiefs could surely use him at right tackle or guard.
19. Cleveland Browns – Jaelen Strong, WR, Arizona State
    The Browns should be pumped that the 49ers and Chiefs both passed on Strong. A big and, well, strong receiver, Strong wins with tremendous hands and ability at the catch point, even if other areas of his game need work. Becomes the best (active) receiver on Cleveland’s roster.
20. Philadelphia Eagles – Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State
    Philadelphia has been plagued by poor cornerback play for several years now. Waynes gives them their first real chance at having a #1 cornerback since they signed Nnamdi Asomugha and decided to use him as a roving Joker player rather than a press-man corner.
21. Cincinnati Bengals – Vic Beasley, OLB, Clemson
    I don’t get the love for Beasley as a top-ten or even top-five selection, as I don’t think he has the upside for that. Cincinnati needs pass rush help badly, though, as Carlos Dunlap was their only consistently effective rusher last year. Hopefully Geno Atkins will get back up to speed another year removed from his ACL tear, but either way, Beasley can offer someone to fill a Von Miller-type role of traditional outside linebacker mixed in with a rusher on passing downs.
22. Pittsburgh Steelers – Marcus Peters, CB, Washington
    Here’s another team that badly needs a cornerback. Peters falls because he was dismissed from his Washington team midseason, but stories are coming in that the rumors surrounding his dismissal were wildly overblown. If that turns out to be true, expect his stock to rise even higher.
23. Detroit Lions – Cedric Ogbuehi, OT, Texas A&M
    Detroit catches a break of sorts when Ogbuehi’s ACL tear causes him to fall to them. He should be recovered by the start of the season, and he’d arguably be a top-ten pick without the injury. Ogbuehi would probably play right tackle this year before flipping sides with Riley Reiff. He shores up one of the weakest spots of Detroit’s offense.
24. Arizona Cardinals – Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia
    And speaking of guys who would have gone much higher if not for ACL tears. Gurley has tremendous agility and balance for his size to go with strength, vision, and patience. Bruce Arians learned last year that his fears that Andre Ellington could be run into the ground were true; Gurley gives them the between-the-tackles every-down guy they need so they can save Ellington for big plays.
25. Carolina Panthers – Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Missouri
    This seems probably the least realistic pick of the first round– unlike Peters, DGB’s dismissal from school involved a serious domestic allegation, and he hasn’t played in an entire year. Still, though, his talent is rare– a size-speed combination reminiscent of Calvin Johnson– and I think some team with a need at receiver will take a chance on him. Giving Cam Newton two big outside targets who can get balls out of the air should go a long way to helping his production.
26. Baltimore Ravens – Devin Funchess, WR/TE, Michigan
    While it’s not terribly like Baltimore to draft a receiver in the first round, Torrey Smith is a free agent who seemed to take a step back this year, Steve Smith turns 36 soon, and they don’t have much else at receiver (or at tight end, if Dennis Pitta can’t recover from his hip injuries). They need to give Joe Flacco a serious target.
27. Dallas Cowboys – Michael Bennett, DT, Ohio State
    Cowboys fans should be pumped with this pick. An aggressive, penetrating defensive tackle who will aid the pass rush and make the rest of the front seven better.
28. Denver Broncos – Jordan Phillips, DT, Oklahoma
    Terrance Knighton is a free agent and likely to depart. Phillips moves very well for his size and has been ranked a top-15 prospect by several outlets. When in doubt, grab the big man who moves fast.
29. Indianapolis Colts – Eli Harold, DE/OLB, Virginia
    Harold is a very athletic but not accomplished pass rusher (so basically, the opposite of Bjoern Werner). Indianapolis needs defensive help, and so they take a chance on Harold developing into an edge-rusher to pair with last year’s fifth-round find, Jonathan Newsome.
30. Green Bay Packers – Eric Kendricks, LB, UCLA
    Possibly the most complete linebacker in the draft, Green Bay has been looking for a true playmaker at the position for some time (to the point where they moved Clay Matthews there for stretches last year). Kendricks will fill the bill nicely.
31. Seattle Seahawks – Nelson Agholor, WR, USC
    Seattle had been able to get by with a weak wide receiver group, but the Super Bowl exposed some of the limitations of that approach. If they want to maximize Russell Wilson’s potential, and want to develop an offense to match their defense, they need to bring some talent in at the position. Agholor hasn’t been mocked this high elsewhere, but he’s a very impressive player who wins in all sorts of ways, from his precise route-running to his explosiveness to his strong hands and large catch radius for his size. If he were three inches taller, he’d be in the conversation with the top guys.
32. New England Patriots – Malcom Brown, DT, Texas
    Future Hall of Famer Vince Wilfork (he legally changed his name after the Super Bowl) probably doesn’t have a whole lot of time left in the NFL. The Pats can both help prepare for his departure and offer him some relief in games in 2015 by drafting Brown, another big, aggressive body who will command blockers.

Click here for Part 2.

What we learned from our 2014 draft scouting

The NFL Draft fascinates us, and has become a major topic of study at Zone Reads, in large part because of the gap of knowledge between what we know and what we want to know; that is to say, the NFL Draft is far from an exact science, and while some of the causes for this are random (bad luck happens, injuries are unpredictable, growth projections made from a solid process still don’t quite pan out), we think teams make a lot of mistakes, too, particularly in that they often overrate measurables over football skills, as though they were drafting for “best physical specimen” rather than “best football player.”

All these factors matter, though, which is why I wanted to talk a bit about what we learned from last year’s film-heavy approach, and what we need to refine, not only in film-watching itself, but in our ability to incorporate other information as well.

1. Film, then measurables, then off-field

Our priority when evaluating the draft last year was to go by the film, and that stood us well for the most part. We weren’t perfect, but when trying to determine whether or not a football player is good enough to become a professional football player, how well they play football goes a long way, usually better than how well they work out in a specific, controlled environment that is not a football game.

Of course, one can be a good, skilled, technically sound football player who makes an impact in college, but is not athletic enough to make the same impact in the NFL. (Bjoern Werner is finding this out right now.) In this regard, athleticism is important, both in terms of the necessary baseline to compete on an NFL playing field, and to measure a player’s potential ceiling (players who are athletic enough to dominate on an NFL field will always go early even when their technique is bad, because such a thing is so rare). Still, though, film comes first, because functional athleticism shows up on film: There’s a difference between a raw, technically unsound athlete who makes plays, and one who runs around like a chicken with its head cut off. Many coaches believe you can “coach up” lack of technique and discipline, and in some cases you can, but we find it more accurate to take the “you are who you are” approach to players, and not project too much growth without reason.

Similarly, we’ll have higher grades on players who seem deficient in certain measurable areas but who play well on film; these players tend to have their ceilings capped due to their physical limitations, but they can often make a positive impact in a specific role if given the chance. We’ll move a guy up if we think he has a strong chance of being a positive contributor to a winning team, even if his ceiling is limited and he’ll never be an All-Pro. (Michael Campanaro is a good example; his measurables led the Wake Forest wide receiver to drop all the way to the seventh round, but we think he displays the kind of traits to make him a strong slot receiver in the Wes Welker mode of “get open short and catch everything.” Now, that’s a very specific skill set, and at 5’11”, 190, he’s never going to be the all-around terror you want when you draft a receiver early. However, the fact that we think he could be a quality starter in that role moved him up on our boards, because we think that’s a valuable thing.)

In many cases, the difference between our evaluations and where a player got drafted came down to off-field stuff. That sort of thing is tricky for us to evaluate: All we have is news reports that are publicly available to everyone. We don’t have a chance to meet with players, we don’t get to have our team doctors evaluate them, and we don’t get the information we need to determine whether off-field incidents or injuries were youthful indiscretions and/or flukes, or if they were part of a recurring pattern. So we do the best we can. We try to only let off-field factors affect our grades to the degree we can be confident in our knowledge of those factors, and that confidence is not common given our limited information.

Of course, even these rules have exceptions. We rated Martavis Bryant as a second-round pick last year, which seemed more of a measurement of potential and athleticism than the film would suggest. However, we thought that Bryant’s athleticism translated to the game itself; in addition, the stories we heard about Bryant off the field is that, although he was still raw, he had recently begun taking his preparation much more seriously. We believed these stories, so we gave more weight to the idea that he would be able to develop his talents. So, sometimes, you do indeed have to go with the athleticism and your opinion of a player’s work ethic, when it seems like the most accurate evaluation of the prospect’s potential to make it as an NFL player.

2. We’re still better at evaluating skill positions than the trenches.

Without doing a comprehensive study of our 2014 evaluations and where those prospects ended up, my initial impression is that we missed more than anywhere else on linemen– offensive line more than defensive, and interior linemen more than outside players.

Brandon Linder is probably the best example of this from last year; we rated the Miami (FL) guard as a fringe-draftable prospect, and yet the Jaguars not only drafted him in the third round, but he played well enough to be considered a part of their future plans. It’s possible we overemphasized his struggles in pass protection. It’s possible we underrated his athleticism and ability to adjust to the next level. It’s possible he was poorly coached at Miami and played much better with a better staff and better supporting teammates. (The fact that two of his Miami teammates, Seantrel Henderson and Allen Hurns, well outperformed their expectations suggests the coaching in Miami isn’t getting the most out of its players.)

We were mostly wrong on centers, too, having Bryan Stork lower than most, Weston Richburg much lower than where he was drafted, and Marcus Martin higher than his performance warranted. (We were right that Corey Linsley was a sleeper with a good chance to start, though.) I’m not sure where exactly our offensive line scouting is deficient, but it’s something we’ll continue to refine.

3. Consider the whole body of work.

We underrated some players because they had poor tape as a result of nagging injuries, when their tape from when they were healthy shows a much better player. On the other hand, trying to correct for this also led up to overrate some players because their highlights were impressive, but their consistency was lacking. Probably the best examples I can remember of this are Louis Nix and Adrian Hubbard, players whose 2013 film was stellar, but for whom injuries (Nix) and loss of playing time (Hubbard) made for much more questionable prospects than our grades reflected.

4. In film watching, consider the context.

Consider the competition.
This is one reason small-school prospects are always met with scrutiny: It’s a lot easier to look like the fastest guy on the field against a bunch of non-scholarship student-athletes than it is to look like the fastest guy on the field against a team full of four- and five-star recruits who have NFL futures of their own. The idea with the Combine is that it provides a baseline for athletic comparison, but again, what the Combine measures doesn’t always manifest itself in gameday performance. (Running a 40-yard dash or a 3-cone drill in workout gear is a different beast than getting off the line of scrimmage first and beating the tackle to the corner. Just ask Trent Murphy.)

I’ve decided to start paying more attention to whom exactly a prospect is going up against, and weighing performances against other highly rated prospects more heavily.

Consider the system.
It’s a lot easier to look like a good player if you are in a system that consistently sets you up to do so. If an offensive system makes decisions easy for its quarterback, the quarterback deserves to have additional scrutiny placed on his decision-making abilities. If a receiver puts up big numbers in a system that consistently helps him get open, we need to determine how much of that is the system vs. his own abilities. (Similarly, we may have concerns about said receiver’s ability to make tough catches in traffic, if he never goes into traffic to make a catch.)

Consider the teammates.
On the one hand, considering the Tennessee Titans may go into 2015 with him as the starter, our evaluation of Zach Mettenberger as a second-round talent feels pretty good. On the other hand, considering the success of Odell Beckham Jr., Jarvis Landry, Jeremy Hill, and even Alfred Blue this season, we might have paused to ask ourselves why LSU’s offense didn’t perform better despite all that talent, and we might have settled on Mettenberger as the reason. I don’t even think our evaluation was bad– Mettenberger does have a number of positive traits, and I feel our evaluation accurately reflected those– but I don’t think we sufficiently considered that context, and we would have had him lower on our boards if we had.

Trying to separate what a player does from the context he does it in is tricky, but it’s necessary.

All in all, what this post is really about is looking for flaws in our process and refining them.  We’re never going to be perfect, or even the best, but now that the NFL season is over and the “real” season for draftniks has begun, I’ve begun to also think about our approach in the lead-up to watching film on prospects. Hopefully we can get better at it and contribute to the growth of knowledge.

Thoughts on the recent NFL coaching changes

All in all, it was a pretty typical offseason as far as upheaval in the NFL head coaching ranks goes. Since the dust finally seems settled (only Atlanta’s head coaching job remains open, and it’s all but given that Seahawks DC Dan Quinn will immediately take it following the Super Bowl), I thought I’d look at all the moves made (and the moves not made) and offer my thoughts.

New York Jets

Though I like Rex Ryan as a head coach in general, I felt it was time for New York to move on from him. After six years, and nearly every major offensive component turning over at least once while Ryan was head coach– GMs, offensive coordinators, starting quarterbacks– the ultimate responsibility for failing to field an offense that could allow the team to compete is on him. (Chase Stuart of Football Perspective has a much more detailed account of Ryan’s flaws and the circumstances that demanded his firing.)

Todd Bowles has been a rising star in the coaching ranks after two years of maintaining the high standard of performance as Arizona’s defensive coordinator that was established when Ray Horton had the job. I think it’s a solid hire; I certainly prefer hiring a rising assistant to a known mediocrity.

I’m really intrigued by his hire of Chan Gailey as OC. While Gailey at first glance might seem like another face in a sea of retread coaches, he’s one of the more innovative faces there, having a history of developing unconventional offenses to maximize his talent at hand (most notably with Kansas City in 2008, when, left with only Tyler Thigpen at QB, he resorted to a spread attack similar to the one Thigpen ran at Coastal Carolina). That track record intrigues me, because it makes me think Gailey will do whatever is necessary to maximize his offensive talent and performance at QB– whether that QB is Geno Smith or someone else.

Buffalo Bills

In one of the most unusual moves in head-coaching history, Doug Marrone opted out of his contract due to a clause, that as far as I know, has never been executed in NFL history: The “If the owner dies and the team is sold, I can opt out of my deal after two years” contract. Marrone opted out of his deal, and though he was rumored as a hot head-coaching candidate for the available jobs, particularly the Jets and Falcons, he ultimately took the job of offensive line coach and assistant head coach in Jacksonville, not exactly a lateral move.

Marrone’s failure to find another head-coaching job wasn’t a total surprise; rumbles from Buffalo were that he was significantly overrated and had little to do with the team’s success (he’s an offensive coach, which means he is responsible for the team’s stagnant offense the last two seasons, and the complete disaster of the E.J. Manuel selection and development). Rex Ryan seems like a solid hire, although his specialty– rushing the passer– is something the team already does well, and he won’t fix the offensive problems the team has had the last several years.

Atlanta Falcons

I’m not surprised by Mike Smith’s firing: despite opening his career with five straight playoff appearances, the team cratered in 2013 and 2014, and while injuries and a thin roster played a serious part, so did his absolute terror at fourth-down situations and his inexplicable time management. The Falcons became a bad team at about the same time Smith lost his aggression on fourth-down situations.

I don’t know much about Dan Quinn, but he’s the second defensive coordinator to be hired away from Seattle since 2013, and I think Gus Bradley is doing well despite a poor record for two seasons. Without more specific information on Quinn, I expect he’s a solid hire, especially for a team that already has the most important building blocks to an elite passing offense and needs help revitalizing the defense.

Denver Broncos

I have mixed opinions about John Fox, but ultimately I think John Elway made a gutsy move to fire him. While Fox has always brought a solid defense with him wherever he goes, he actually doesn’t have a particularly impressive track record– only three winning seasons in ten before Peyton Manning became his starting quarterback; he’s basically the non-scumbag Jeff Fisher– and his overly conservative approach to offense was holding the team back. We saw it two years ago in the playoffs, when Fox sat on the ball at the end of the first half and again at regulation, despite having timeouts and, you know, possibly the greatest quarterback of all time behind center. This year, Fox seemed to not prepare for the divisional playoff game at all: the offense was anemic and a defense that had finished fourth in the regular season was invisible. I’ve heard rumors that Fox is one of those guys that treats the playoffs as “just another game,” not introducing new wrinkles or opponent-specific concepts into his gameplans. I think any coach that does this is giving up significant win equity, and in that sense, I absolutely agree with Elway that Fox would keep the team from reaching the next level.

Unfortunately, Elway replaced Fox with Gary Kubiak, someone even more averse to scoring points and offensive aggression (even more bizarre since he’s an offensive coach), and someone whose offensive system of play-action rollouts and bootlegs isn’t well-suited to Manning. I am skeptical this will work, and it would be a real shame if Peyton Manning’s career ended with another playoff upset caused in part by a head coach holding him back.

Chicago Bears

I ranked Marc Trestman much higher in my coaching rankings last year for a few reasons: I believed he had a much better sense of creating a strong offense and playing to his team’s strengths (Lovie Smith and his offensive coordinators stubbornly clung to deep dropbacks with a poor offensive line, subpar receiving talent, and removing Matt Forte at the goal line), as well as a much better sense of in-game situational management.

Fast-forward a year and it seems he completely lost the locker room. Obviously a guy has to go when that happens; what I don’t understand is how that happened. Without a better idea of why, I can’t say what Trestman should have done differently or if he deserves another chance to be a head coach someday. He’s on to be the new offensive coordinator in Baltimore, replacing Gary Kubiak.

John Fox is the new man in Chicago. If he can fix the defense, he’s a good hire, but you just read my concerns about him, and it’s possible he makes the offense even worse and more inconsistent than it was in 2014.

Oakland Raiders

Since the team dismissed Dennis Allen midseason and installed Tony Sparano as interim coach, a full-time replacement has been long in the making. I’m not sure why the team was so gung-ho about Jack Del Rio (and even more baffled that the team’s only apparent serious head coaching candidates were Del Rio and Sparano). Jokes about potentially dropping an axe on Khalil Mack’s foot aside, Del Rio has a 68-71 record as a head coach, with only two playoff appearances in nine seasons. The team looked at two mediocre retreads; I simply don’t understand the aversion to bringing in new blood, someone whose track record may be shorter but at least isn’t mediocre.

Del Rio’s first hire was Bill Musgrave as offensive coordinator. Musgrave’s history of coordinating NFL offenses is, frankly, not good. However, he was Matt Ryan’s quarterback coach for his first three years in the league, and I suppose Del Rio has some hope he can develop Derek Carr in the same manner. Or maybe Del Rio is just hiring his old buddy from the 2003-04 Jaguars (team record: 14-18). Given that Del Rio’s head-coaching record screams “mediocre retread,” my first thought is that Musgrave falls into the same category.

(Yes, I used the phrase “mediocre retread” a lot. Get used to it. The NFL has Mediocre Retread Syndrome.)

San Francisco 49ers

Jim Tomsula may be an inspired head-coaching hire, but I strongly believe this was the culmination of a series of moves designed to compete long enough simply to secure a new stadium before returning to running the team on the cheap. Jed York should be embarrassed.

Other Situations

• Miami: I don’t know why the team retained Joe Philbin. Bill Lazor was a smart OC hire, and one of the biggest reasons the team improved, but Philbin still seems clueless and cowardly when it comes to in-game decisions.
  Of course, the entire power structure in Miami is a mess, and the team just brought in Mike Tannenbaum for some reason, so I’ll continue to expect a certain level of dysfunction from the team as long as Stephen Ross owns it.
• Tennessee: This is the horrible team no one talks about. Ruston Webster has been embarrassingly bad at identifying talent (the guy brought you the Shonn Greene – Bishop Sankey two-headed backfield; need I say more?). Without Kurt Warner to carry him, Ken Whisenhunt has never shown anything as a head coach except a fascination for QBs with huge arms and horrible accuracy.
  Bud Adams died (good riddance to the guy who robbed Houston of the Oilers franchise) and his son Tommy seems yet to have noticed how terrible his team is. I’d clean out everyone; Adams the Younger barely seems to have considered that option after a 2-14 season where the team was completely non-competitive outside of a bizarre fluke week 1 win.
• Washington: Jay Gruden doesn’t want to work with Robert Griffin. Jay Gruden should be fired, then. Quarterbacks with Griffin’s talent are rare, and if you’re a coach who refuses to maximize those talents, you are not doing your job and should be fired for cause.
  Scot McCloughan is an inspired choice to head personnel, but who knows what actual power he’ll wield for the league’s most dysfunctional franchise? The most interesting thing about the Washington franchise is how deep Dan Snyder will dig in to embarrass himself over the team’s racist nickname.
• Tampa Bay: Hopefully Lovie Smith’s performance this year forever dispels the myth of “steady veteran leadership” at the head coaching position. I didn’t think it was possible for this team to be worse than it was under Greg Schiano last year, but, surprise!
  The team is alarmingly bereft of talent and very few of their free-agent signings and draft picks have worked. (Really, the team should promote whoever’s in charge of wide receiver scouting to run things, because Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson have been the only clear successes.) Much like their South Beach counterparts, this team has a messy org chart and a certain level of dysfunction that seems to stem from the very top. (Jacksonville may well have the brightest future of the Florida teams.)

What’s Wrong with the Saints?

After the last few weeks, I can no longer pretend the New Orleans Saints’ fortunes this season are a result of bad luck, getting bad breaks at the end of close games. This may have been true early on, but it’s clear the team is overall performing significantly worse than expected this season, and, with the Carolina game as evidence, is capable of even lower lows than I’d previously thought possible. After playing arguably the worst game any team has played all season, a 41-10 home loss to a 3-8-1 team that was somehow not as close as that score suggests, New Orleans sits at 5-8, still with a chance to make the playoffs but with a team that is a total mess.

I’m going to try to take a look at what’s gone wrong this year, from specific problems to general trends. A game this week against a team that’s possibly more dysfunctional than the Saints might help, but they can’t count on that every week, so here’s what they need to honestly examine and start repairing.

 

Offense:

1. The receivers aren’t getting it done

Marques Colston has gone overnight from a receiver with excellent hands and body control to having one of the highest drop rates in the league. Jimmy Graham has disappeared from multiple games and seems increasingly averse to contact. Darren Sproles’ absence has really hurt the team’s ability to spread the field in the passing game. Brandin Cooks had been fine until he was placed on IR, but comparing the draft capital spent on him to the returns some of the other members of the 2014 receiver class have provided has to be a little disappointing.

Kenny Stills is the biggest bright spot, a steal of a fifth-round receiver who was used primarily as a deep threat his rookie year but has strong route-running and ball skills. Still, though, this receiving crew has turned thin overnight, and the team passed on a chance to add multiple parts in the draft this year (more on that later).

2. Brees has made some sloppy decisions

Drew Brees hasn’t declined as much as some observers want to claim, but at a time when the rest of the team seems to be slowly declining as well, any mistakes he makes are magnified. He’s made some baffling decisions that have cost games– think the late interception in Detroit. He’s thrown multiple pick-sixes again.

If the rumors they want to take a QB high in 2015 are true, it only disappoints me even more that they didn’t stand pat at No. 27 and take Teddy Bridgewater. (If there’s one team that should appreciate an accurate, decision-sharp, but physically underwhelming QB, it’s the New Orleans Saints.) Of course, Brees’ struggles are in part due to points 1 and 3…

3. The line is not living up to expectations

The team let Brian de la Puente, a Pro Bowl center and another one of their undrafted free agent finds, walk in the offseason. They’ve generally done well with their next-man-up philosophy to not overpay middling or slightly-above-average talent, but occasionally they miss and don’t have a backup plan. Tim Lelito, a fine run blocker, wasn’t ready to take over at center, so the team signed 35-year-old Jonathan Goodwin back away from San Francisco (after they’d poached the New Orleans free agent a few years back). He has been… adequate.

Jahri Evans and Ben Grubbs aren’t quite playing to their expected level anymore. The whole team is aging, and collectively, each player’s small decline is adding up to a serious decline overall.

4. The play-calling can get silly

Sometimes I think Sean Payton is a little too interested in coming up with clever or creative ways to get one yard. Other times I think he calls too many plays with limited options despite having a quarterback who’s among the best at surveying the field and making the best of multiple decisions. Other times, he leaves Jimmy Graham off the field in the situations he’s designed for.

Payton’s fourth-and-short play calling in the last two years has included a fullback dive, a designed pass to the fullback in the flat, a quarterback sneak by a guy who measures six-foot-even, quite a few tosses or slow-developing stretch runs to Mark Ingram, and, in the coup de grâce for opinions of Payton’s short-yardage play-calling, a third-string tight end getting a handoff on an end-around. Payton seems to love being either overly fancy or utterly predictable in these situations. The Saints are at their best when they do what they do best– namely, give Drew Brees options, and make sure one of those options is Jimmy Graham.

 

Defense:

1. An overall lack of talent

I’d like to take a minute to talk about how the current Saints roster has been a bit hamstrung by two things:

• The Bountygate penalties stripped two second-round draft picks from the team, players who could reasonably be expected to be above-average starters. (Now that Roger Goodell has been revealed to be a total fraud when it comes to being moral and just in his adjudication, this seems much more unfair. You can read Houston attorney Stephanie Stradley’s excellent series on Bountygate for more detail; this is a good start.)
• The Saints keep trading up in the first round, and it keeps costing them picks that could be used for depth.

Since 1999, the Saints have traded up six times in or into the first round. (The 1999 trade was all Mike Ditka, but the next five were current GM Mickey Loomis’ decisions, so he bears serious responsibility for this approach to drafting.) Some cursory research suggests this is easily the highest number of any team in this time. What’s worse, they keep doing it even though the results don’t seem to really merit it:

• 1999: The Saints trade their entire draft, plus next year’s first- and third-rounders, to Washington to move up for Ricky Williams. He is with the team for three years before being traded to Miami, although the team does get a first-round pick back for him. Unfortunately…
• 2003: The Saints trade their first-round pick (No. 17) and Miami’s first-round pick (No. 18), to move up to No. 6, while also moving up from No. 54 to No. 37 in the second round, and acquiring the No. 102 pick in the fourth round.
  At 6, they select defensive tackle Johnathan Sullivan, who turns out to be a tremendous bust who ate his way out of the league after three seasons. To add insult to injury, defensive tackle Kevin Williams was taken No. 9; he enjoyed perennial Pro Bowls in his prime and is still in the league in his 13th season.
  (Another fun note: While No. 37 selection Jon Stinchcomb enjoyed a fine career as the Saints right tackle, the No. 54 selection was Anquan Boldin, of whom it’s safe to say he’s had the better career.)
• 2005: The Saints trade No. 16 and their 2006 third-rounder to the Texans for No. 13. They take Jammal Brown, which was a surprise, as most pundits had Alex Barron as the higher-ranked OT. It was the right decision, though: Barron was a bust, as was DT Travis Johnson (the Texans’ selection at 16). Meanwhile, Brown made All-Pro in his second season. Unfortunately, a hip injury sidelined him for all of 2009, and the Saints, confident that 2007 fourth-rounder Jermon Bushrod could handle the job, subsequently traded Brown to Washington for what ended up being a 2011 third-round pick (see below as to how they used that pick).
  As a footnote, the third-rounder the Saints surrendered was used to select Eric Winston, who never reached the heights Brown did as a player, but was a very good right tackle for Houston who never missed a game in seven seasons. So if you’re keeping score, the Saints got four years of Pro Bowl-caliber play by trading a pick that netted seven years of above-average play– and this was one of their most successful first-round trades.
• 2008: The Saints trade their first-round pick (No. 10) and third-round pick (No. 78) to New England for their first- (No. 7) and fifth- (No. 164) picks. This isn’t much value to give up, but the Saints select defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis, who gives them five mostly disinterested years before retiring when his rookie contract expires. (Rumors were that the Saints wanted to give up a king’s ransom to move up to No. 5 to select Glenn Dorsey, which the Chiefs refused; that would have been much worse simply for the amount of draft capital lost.) Naturally, the Patriots’ selection at 10, Jerod Mayo, has enjoyed a career as one of the better inside linebackers in the league.
  This one has a silver lining, though: the No. 164 pick was Carl Nicks, who was one of the best guards in the league for the four years he was with the Saints, before signing a huge free-agent deal with Tampa Bay. (Tampa Bay being Tampa Bay, he then immediately suffered a toe injury and a MRSA infection that crippled his effectiveness to the point where the team released him (in a mutual decision) in July.)
• 2011: The Saints trade their second-round pick and next year’s first-round pick for New England’s No. 28 first-round pick, then select Mark Ingram. You probably know how I feel about running backs as fungible assets. You probably also know how I feel about physically mediocre running backs with substandard moves and vision who take four years to finally become effective. An awful decision that even the best running of Ingram’s career hasn’t made look better. (Or the fact that by staying put in the second round, the Saints could have just drafted DeMarco Murray instead.)
  Some bad luck here: The Saints’ third-round pick was No. 72; the No. 70 selection was Justin Houston and the No. 71 was Murray. At 72, the Saints selected Martez Wilson, a similarly-graded prospect whom they released after two and a half seasons and who is currently not under contract anywhere in the NFL.
• 2014: In the deepest wide receiver draft in history, the Saints trade up from No. 27 to No. 20 to select Brandin Cooks. Cooks was having a fine enough year (if not in the league of the other first-round rookies) until he went on injured reserve, but it’s arguable that the receiver Arizona selected with the Saints’ third-round pick, John Brown, has been nearly as productive as Cooks (and would be just as productive if the Drew throwing to him was named Brees and not Stanton).

I bring up all this in the section on defense because the team likes to make mention of how many undrafted free-agent rookies they find and are able to get contributions out of. Well, it’s time to face the flipside of that coin: They often do this because they have to, because their trading up spreads their draft capital too thin. And this year, those guys have not been getting it done. (To be fair, neither have most of the drafted guys.) When you trade up constantly, you lose the steady stream of day one and two picks that are supposed to be your starters, the core of your team. When you lose that stream, you have to start looking at lower picks, undrafted free agents, and cheap veteran free agents to fill those roles.

Sometimes you get a great contributor (Junior “SACKMAN” Galette has been one of the more valuable UDFAs in recent memory), but more often, you have guys who are simply overmatched. While the Saints have found some late-round and undrafted gems, this well simply doesn’t have a high enough success rate to be able to sustain building a team this way in lieu of day one and day two picks. As a result, the overall level of talent is just not there. There are Pro Bowl players on the defense, but no real star. And once you get beyond the five or so best players on the defense, the cracks show pretty quickly.

2. Jairus Byrd might be a colossal bust

The Byrd signing was a gamble, especially given his history of foot injuries, but if he was able to play at the expected level, he would have been a valuable addition to the Saints’ defense, a center fielder who range would allow the team to mix and match a variety of looks and coverages in front of him. That never materialized. I certainly don’t regret letting Malcolm Jenkins (another first-rounder who never lived up to expectations) walk, but without either one of them, the position is undeniably downgraded.

The real issue is if Byrd can’t rebound: The Saints’ gamble on offering him a major contract may quickly turn into an albatross. Rebuilding will be even harder with the guaranteed money facing Byrd tied to the cap for a player who can’t play.

3. Still can’t find a second cornerback

The team might want to start thinking about finding some new scouting for the secondary, because this isn’t about a lack of capital. The team nailed the Jabari Greer and Keenan Lewis signings, correctly identifying underrated corners who were strong in coverage, but virtually every other move at the cornerback position has failed: from signing Jason David to drafting Patrick Robinson in the first round to drafting Johnny Patrick in the third round to signing Champ Bailey this year (a signing that cost them $500,000 guaranteed for a player who never played a snap) to drafting Stanley Jean-Baptiste this year, none of their significant moves have worked out. The team is getting significant minutes from Corey White (2012 fifth-rounder) and Brian Dixon (undrafted rookie) out of sheer necessity, because so many of their other attempts to find cornerbacks haven’t worked. And, unsurprisingly, they’ve been overmatched. (Greer’s ACL tear, which effectively ended his career, is the hidden explanation for the Saints’ struggles– the team simply no longer has a second capable cover corner.)

The Jean-Baptiste one is the most baffling. As someone who had Phillip Gaines rated as a first-rounder, it’s been a little frustrating seeing him move into Kansas City’s starting lineup while the Saints struggle at the position, but even so, I thought Jean-Baptiste was someone who had enough natural talent to get on the field right away. Instead, he’s played eight total snaps on defense this year. That’s less than one snap a game. I don’t know why SJB can’t get more playing time, unless he’s completely unable to pick up the defense. If that’s the case, it’s unacceptable to use a high pick on someone without verifying that sort of thing. (I admit, in my own ranking of Jean-Baptiste, I failed to account sufficiently for his combination of rawness and age– I can live with a 21-year-old who needs some time to get up to speed, but a 24-year-old needs to be able to contribute almost immediately.)

The only team that’s gotten less contribution out of a corner taken in the first three rounds is the Jets, who drafted Dexter McDougle early in the third round despite the fact that he missed most of his final season at Maryland with an injury, only to see him succumb to another season-ending injury before the year even started.

The Saints simply have to do better at identifying and developing starting-caliber cornerback talent.

4. Nobody can tackle

I don’t know how you teach a team to tackle. I also don’t know how you teach a team to take proper angles of pursuit. These are pretty basic fundamentals; NFL players should know them by the time they get to the Show.

The Saints have a lot of rebuilding to do. It’s possible the Drew Brees era is functionally over, due to the decline of the talent around him. By the time the cap room is cleared and the roster is re-stocked, he may be too old to benefit. For the most part, the Mickey Loomis – Sean Payton team has been able to build a contending roster around Brees that maximizes his skills. As he ages and the talent around him declines, though, it’s time they looked honestly at what they’re doing wrong in roster building and start making the changes that will allow them to return to perennial contention.

This story has been updated to reflect the Saints’ 2005 first-round trade. GM Mickey Loomis has traded up in the first round five times in twelve seasons.

Midseason Review: NFC South

I’ll try to get a series of midseason reviews about various divisions done this week. I may not get to all of them, so I’ll try to start with the ones that interest me the most.

NFC SOUTH

New Orleans Saints
Current record: 4-4

The Saints lead the division, although they’d surely like to have a better record at this point. Losing three close games on the road in rough fashion has held them back early on. That said, they did look shakier in the early season than they have since the bye, barely beating Tampa Bay and struggling to put away Minnesota.

Two solid wins against Green Bay and at Carolina indicate that the team is a lot better than the one that struggled for six weeks. The question is: Were the better performances the result of favorable matchups, or of sustainable improvements on both sides of the ball? It’s a question with evidence to support each argument: Green Bay only stopped scoring when Aaron Rodgers was hurt, and the Saints match up particularly well with a Carolina team with one serious receiving option and a porous offensive line. On the other hand, getting Mark Ingram and Kenny Stills back to full health opened up the offense, and Rob Ryan may have used the bye week to re-engineer a defense that was conceived around the free-range ability of Jairus Byrd. For those reasons, the Saints may be the most intriguing story of the second half of the season, as they try to prove they are a real Super Bowl contender.

Carolina Panthers
Current record: 3-5-1

Losing Greg Hardy has been more difficult on the defense than I think anyone anticipated. Kelvin Benjamin has played incredibly well, all things considered, but the same problems that were perceived in this team before the season continue to surface: An undermanned offensive line and receiver crew, running backs who can’t stay healthy, and a lack of talent in the back four on defense. This roster needs to be rebuilt, and it needs to be done before Cam Newton develops too many bad habits from working with subpar talent.

Atlanta Falcons
Current record: 2-6

All that draft-day trading up and top-heavy team-building has come to roost the last two seasons for the Falcons, as injuries and lack of cap room have left them with multiple subpar units. After 2012, it would have been crazy to suggest anyone in the Falcons’ braintrust might be in jeopardy, yet less than two years later, here we are.

The team needs to build a healthy offensive line and a pass rush before it can consider itself a playoff contender again. I know this is an unreasonably short writeup, but there’s not much to say: The good (Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Desmond Trufant, eventually Jake Matthews) and bad (just about everything else) with this team are pretty obvious.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Current record: 1-7

I feel like “solid” and “high floor”, when used to describe draft prospects, often means “low ceiling.” I can’t tell you how many guys I’ve heard described that way have just been complete busts (Aaron Curry and Jason Smith are two of the more recent ones; Luke Joeckel is heading there). All this is a metaphor for Lovie Smith’s “veteran coaching presence.” His supposed “high floor” isn’t manifesting itself; the roster has a decided lack of talent and he’s doing nothing to get any kind of special performance out of it. Lovie Smith was supposed to be a throwback to the Dungy era, but right now, it’s looking more like the Hugh Culverhouse years.

Mike Glennon is probably not the answer, but he hasn’t been outright terrible, either. That said, no matter how the team goes about it, they need a real passing game to compete in the modern NFL. Smith doesn’t have much of a track record of delivering those.

Post-script: After I initially wrote this, Smith announced Josh McCown would return to being the starter. He also said Mike Glennon was still “the future of this team.” Those things appear to me to be mutually exclusive, but what do I know, I’m not an NFL head coach (of a 1-7 team).